Introduction: Since the first published cases of the Coronavirus disease known as COVID-19 in the city of Wuhan Hubei Province in China, up until to the time of preparation of this report in mid-September 2020, more than 30 million people have been infected all over the world. In March 2020, more than 300,000 cases have been reported all over Iraq. This study aims to represent data analysis, modelling and forecasting approaches to the presented data in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Methodology: The project involves mathematical models for forecasting and artificial simulations using particles. In the study, time series models including Simple Exponential Model, Holt’s Method and Brown’s Models have been used for the forecasting of the future potential rates in the area. A series of simulations have been conducted to observe the possibilities of virus spread rates in a virtual world which represents a quarter of Erbil. Results: The outcome of the study shows how the disease have spread in Kurdistan, and what are the current rates to compare with neighbour regions. The modelling clearly shows that with cases still sporadically appearing, the risk of second and third waves of infections is high. Conclusions: Therefore, the regional government must reduce unnecessary gatherings to the lowest possible level. A scientific registry system of disease statistics must be put in place and rigorously updated all the times. We recommend the officials use a nationwide database provided to the public to monitor movement of every infected individual, to prevent further spread.
We investigate some aspects of black hole (BH) thermodynamics in the framework of a modified dispersion relation. We calculate a minimal length and a maximal momentum to find a relation between spacetime dimensions and the presence of logarithmic prefactor in the black hole entropy relation. We show that the logarithmic prefactor appears not only in an even number of dimensions but also in an odd number of dimensions. In addition, the sign of the logarithmic factor is different for positive values of α in all dimensions. Using the corrected entropy, the black hole radiation probability is calculated in the tunneling formalism, which is corrected up to the same order of the Planck length and shows a more probable quantum tunneling.
It is surprisingly simple and paradoxical that Covid-19 pandemic shows a specific tendency to be an economy-related and driven pandemic. Countries with higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP), incurred more cases of infection and mortalities such a way that a steady trend emerges: those most affected are the richest amongst the rich, and the richer amongst the poorer. Surprisingly, the a country’s healthcare system integrity level seems to be a less relevant factor or even a nonfactor. Countries with low GDP and weak healthcare system manifested the lowest numbers of infection and death cases all around the world. This work is based on statistical data analysis and correlation between infection and mortality cases as per country, region, continent and provinces within countries with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A specific strong positive correlation between the GDP of a certain country/province, region and the number of infection and mortalities emerged. This relationship is validated for Europe, USA, Latin America, Asia, Africa and the Middle East. This inter-dependent relationship holds paradoxical elements as it stands against the common wisdom that a country or group of countries with higher Epidemic Preparedness Index (EPI) and development, the less exposed to pandemics are. This has been shown not to be case with Covid-19. In fact, it is the opposite. This work sees embedded factors related to Bioeconomics, socio-cultural factors that determined this relationship. It is a phenomenon worthy of more analysis and more specific data related to ethnicities, genetics, socio-cultural and Bioeconomics.
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