Since 1730 when Reaumut introduced the concept of heat units, many methods of calculating thermal physiological time heat have been used to simulate the phenology of poikilothermic organisms in biological and agricultural sciences. Most of these models are grounded on the concept of the “law of total effective temperatures”, which abstracts the temperature responses of a particular species, in which a specific amount of thermal units should be accumulated above a temperature threshold, to complete a certain developmental event. However, the above temperature summation rule is valid within the species-specific temperature range of development and therefore several empirical linear and nonlinear regression models, including the derivation of the biophysical models as well, have been proposed to define these critical temperatures for development. Additionally, several statistical measures based on ordinary least squares instead of likelihoods, have been also proposed for parameter estimation and model comparison. Given the importance of predicting distribution of insects, for insect ecology and pest management, this article reviews representative temperature-driven models, heat accumulation systems and statistical model evaluation criteria, in an attempt to describe continuous and progressive improvement of the physiological time concept in current entomological science and to infer the ecological consequences for insect spatiotemporal arrangements.
Laboratory studies were conducted to assess the effect of constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) on life history traits of peach twig borer, Anarsia lineatella Zeller (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae). Developmental rate, survival, longevity, and fecundity were studied in environmental chambers from individuals reared on peach, Prunus persica L., twigs until adulthood. Temperature-dependent relationships of various developmental events were characterized, and applied models were evaluated. Total developmental time ranged from 20.4 d (30 degrees C) to 124 d (15 degrees C). Lower developmental thresholds for egg-to-adult development assessed to 11.2 or 11.8 degrees C, according to a linear weighted regression or the reduced major axis method, whereas development required on average 400 degree days (DD) or 424.4, respectively. Survival was substantially reduced at lower (15 degrees C) and higher (35 degrees C) temperatures. First-instar larvae exhibited higher sensitivities during development in all treatments. Mean longevity ranged from 12.1 d (35 degrees C) to 45.8 d (15 degrees C) and from 10.4 d (15 degrees C) to 50.3 d (35 degrees C) for females and males, respectively. A significantly higher number of eggs was laid at the moderate temperatures (126.9 at 25 degrees C), whereas at the extremes, females laid the fewest (40.4 and 26.3 at 15 and 35 degrees C, respectively). A new model, based on a beta type distribution function, fitted on the temperature-dependant developmental data to predict population dynamics. Relative accuracy of the above-mentioned formula was validated using root mean square error (RMSE), index of agreement (d) and the mean square error quotient (E1,2) with respect to a proved model.
This review focuses on the process of adapting the original concept of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) to the wider conception of the Integrated Fruit Production (IFP) implemented in Europe. Even though most of the pest management strategies still rely on the use of synthetic pesticides, a wide array of innovative and environmentally friendly tools are now available as possible alternative to the pesticides within the modern apple production system. We also highlight how recent pest management strategies and tools have created an opening for research towards IPM improvement, including the use of biorational pesticides, semiochemicals and biological control. Forecasting models, new tree training systems and innovative spray equipment have also been developed to improve treatment coverage, to mitigate pesticide drift and to reduce chemical residues on fruits. The possible threats that jeopardize the effective implementation of IPM and particularly the risks related to the development of the pesticide resistance and the introduction of new invasive pests are also reviewed. With the directive 128/09, the European legislation recognizes IPM as a strategic approach for the sustainable use of pesticides. Within this context, IPM and related guidelines is called to meet different areas of concern in relation to the worker and bystander safety. Beside the traditional economic criteria of the market-oriented agriculture, sustainable agriculture includes the assessment of the environmental impact of the agronomic practices within the societal context where they take place. As a consequence of the raising consumer concerns about environmental impacts generated by the fruit production, IFP certification over product standards, including process aspects, are frequently required by consumers and supermarket chains.
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