The results of a simulation-based evaluation of several policies for vaccine rollout are reported. In the presence of limited vaccine supply, this policy choice is a pressing issue for several countries worldwide, and the adopted course of action will affect the extension or easing of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the next months. We employ a suitably generalised, age-structure, stochastic SEIR (Susceptible -> Exposed -> Infectious -> Removed) epidemic model that can accommodate quantitative descriptions of the major effects resulting from distinct vaccination strategies. The different rates of social contacts among distinct age-groups are informed by a recent survey conducted in Greece. The results are summarised and evaluated in terms of the total number of deaths and infections as well as life years lost. The optimal strategy is found to be one based on fully vaccinating the elderly/at risk as quickly as possible, while extending the time-interval between the two vaccine doses to 12 weeks for all individuals below 75 years old, in agreement with epidemic theory which suggests targeting a combination of susceptibility and infectivity. This policy, which is similar to the approaches adopted in the UK and in Canada, is found to be effective in reducing deaths and life years lost in the period while vaccination is still being carried out.
Background. Dietary restriction (DR) is gaining ground as a means to prevent and treat a range of conditions and diseases. In our study we address the impact of periodic abstinence from animal products (periodic veganism) on markers of health. Methods. We profiled 200 periodic vegan (PV) individuals who switch between an omnivorous and a vegan diet, abstaining for 180–200 days annually, in a highly structured manner. We also profiled 211 non–vegan (NV), omnivorous individuals. Traits were measured at two timepoints, the first capturing a period of omnivory for both groups, the second capturing a period during which PV individuals only had followed a vegan diet for three to four weeks. We report results on blood lipids (total, LDL, and HDL cholesterol, triglycerides), glucose metabolism (glucose, insulin, HBA1c), renal function (urea, uric acid, creatinine), liver function (AST, ALT, γ–GT), bone/liver function (ALP), thyroid function (TSH), inflammation (CRP), complete blood counts, anthropometric traits and blood pressure. Results. Upon DR, PV individuals display decreased levels of total and LDL cholesterol [both β=-0.3, 95% CI:(-0.4, -0.2) mmol/L] and of CRP [β=-1.3, 95% CI:(-2.1, -0.5) mg/L] which drops by 28%. Compared to NV, PV individuals display consistently lower counts of total white blood cells (WBC) [β=-0.4, 95% C.I:(-0.6,-0.3) K/μL] and neutrophils [β=-0.4, 95% C.I:(-0.5,-0.2) x10^3/μl], but higher levels of ALP [β=5.9, 95% C.I:(2.7,9.1) U/L], suggesting detrimental effects on bone health. Conclusion. Harnessing dietary intake to prevent and treat disease is a promising approach that should also be explored for synergies with pharmacological therapies.
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