We test for the presence of multifractality in the daily returns of the three most important stock market indices from Central and Eastern Europe, Czech PX, Hungarian BUX and Polish WIG using the Empirical Mode Decomposition based Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. We found that the global Hurst coefficient varies with the q coefficient and that there is multifractality evidenced through the multifractal spectrum. The exercise is replicated for the sample around the high volatility period corresponding to the last global financial crisis. Although no direct link has been found between the crisis and the multifractal spectrum, the crisis was found to influence the overall shape as quantified through the norm of the multifractal spectrum.

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BackgroundThere is a rapidly expanding literature on the application of complex networks in economics that focused mostly on stock markets. In this paper, we discuss an application of complex networks to study international business cycles.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe construct complex networks based on GDP data from two data sets on G7 and OECD economies. Besides the well-known correlation-based networks, we also use a specific tool for presenting causality in economics, the Granger causality. We consider different filtering methods to derive the stationary component of the GDP series for each of the countries in the samples. The networks were found to be sensitive to the detrending method. While the correlation networks provide information on comovement between the national economies, the Granger causality networks can better predict fluctuations in countries’ GDP. By using them, we can obtain directed networks allows us to determine the relative influence of different countries on the global economy network. The US appears as the key player for both the G7 and OECD samples.ConclusionThe use of complex networks is valuable for understanding the business cycle comovements at an international level.

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