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This paper deals with the analysis of the Jeffrey's divergence (JD) between an autoregressive process (AR) and a sum of complex exponentials (SCE), whose magnitudes are Gaussian random values, which is then disturbed by an additive white noise. As interpreting the value of the JD may not be necessarily an easy task, we propose to give an expression of the JD and to analyze the influence of each process parameter on it. More particularly, we show that the ratios between the variance of the additive white noise and the variance of the AR-process driving process on the one hand, and the sum of the ratios between the SCE process power and the AR-process PSD at the normalized angular frequencies on the other hand, has a strong impact on the JD. The 2-norm of the AR-parameter has also an influence. Illustrations confirm the theoretical part.

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Two different random environment INAR models of higher order, precisely RrNGINARmax(p) and RrNGINAR1(p), are presented as a new approach to modeling non-stationary nonnegative integer-valued autoregressive processes. The interpretation of these models is given in order to better understand the circumstances of their application to random environment counting processes. The estimation statistics, defined using the Conditional Least Squares (CLS) method, is introduced and the properties are tested on the replicated simulated data obtained by RrNGINAR models with different parameter values. The obtained CLS estimates are presented and discussed.

The behavior of a generalized random environment integer-valued autoregressive model of higher order with geometric marginal distribution and negative binomial thinning operator is dictated by a realization {zn}?,n=1 of an auxiliary Markov chain called random environment process. Element zn represents a state of the environment in moment n ? N and determines all parameters of the model in that moment. In order to apply the model, one first needs to estimate {zn}?,n=1, which was so far done by K-means data clustering. We argue that this approach ignores some information and performs poorly in certain situations. We propose a new method for estimating {zn}?,n=1, which includes the data transformation preceding the clustering, in order to reduce the information loss. To confirm its efficiency, we compare this new approach with the usual one when applied on the simulated and the real-life data, and notice all the benefits obtained from our method.

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