No abstract

Increasing ocean and air temperatures have contributed to the removal of floating ice shelves from several Greenland outlet glaciers; however, the specific contribution of these external forcings remains poorly understood. Here we use atmospheric, oceanographic and glaciological time series data from the ice shelf of Petermann Gletscher, NW Greenland to quantify the forcing of the ocean and atmosphere on the ice shelf at a site ~16 km from the grounding line within a large sub-ice-shelf channel. Basal melt rates here indicate a strong seasonality, rising from a winter mean of 2 m a−1 to a maximum of 80 m a−1 during the summer melt season. This increase in basal melt rates confirms the direct link between summer atmospheric warming around Greenland and enhanced ocean-forced melting of its remaining ice shelves. We attribute this enhanced melting to increased discharge of subglacial runoff into the ocean at the grounding line, which strengthens under-ice currents and drives a greater ocean heat flux toward the ice base.

Thwaites Glacier is one of the fastest-changing ice–ocean systems in Antarctica1–3. Much of the ice sheet within the catchment of Thwaites Glacier is grounded below sea level on bedrock that deepens inland4, making it susceptible to rapid and irreversible ice loss that could raise the global sea level by more than half a metre2,3,5. The rate and extent of ice loss, and whether it proceeds irreversibly, are set by the ocean conditions and basal melting within the grounding-zone region where Thwaites Glacier first goes afloat3,6, both of which are largely unknown. Here we show—using observations from a hot-water-drilled access hole—that the grounding zone of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) is characterized by a warm and highly stable water column with temperatures substantially higher than the in situ freezing point. Despite these warm conditions, low current speeds and strong density stratification in the ice–ocean boundary layer actively restrict the vertical mixing of heat towards the ice base7,8, resulting in strongly suppressed basal melting. Our results demonstrate that the canonical model of ice-shelf basal melting used to generate sea-level projections cannot reproduce observed melt rates beneath this critically important glacier, and that rapid and possibly unstable grounding-line retreat may be associated with relatively modest basal melt rates.

Hydrographic data collected during five summer surveys between 2002 and 2015 reveal that the subsurface ocean near Petermann Gletscher, Greenland, warmed by 0.015° ± 0.013°C yr−1. New 2015–16 mooring data from beneath Petermann Gletscher’s ice shelf imply a continued warming of 0.025° ± 0.013°C yr−1 with a modest seasonal signal. In 2015, we measured ocean temperatures of 0.28°C near the grounding line of Petermann Gletscher’s ice shelf, which drove submarine melting along the base of the glacier. The resultant meltwater contributed to ocean stratification, which forced a stronger geostrophic circulation at the ice shelf terminus compared with previous years. This increased both the freshwater flux away from the sub–ice shelf cavity and the heat flux into it. Net summertime geostrophic heat flux estimates into the sub–ice shelf cavity exceed the requirement for steady-state melting of Petermann Gletscher’s ice shelf. Likewise, freshwater fluxes away from the glacier exceed the expected steady-state meltwater discharge. These results suggest that the warmer, more active ocean surrounding Petermann Gletscher forces “non steady state” melting of its ice shelf. When sustained, such melting thins the ice shelf.

Thwaites Glacier represents 15% of the ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and influences a wider catchment1–3. Because it is grounded below sea level4,5, Thwaites Glacier is thought to be susceptible to runaway retreat triggered at the grounding line (GL) at which the glacier reaches the ocean6,7. Recent ice-flow acceleration2,8 and retreat of the ice front8–10 and GL11,12 indicate that ice loss will continue. The relative impacts of mechanisms underlying recent retreat are however uncertain. Here we show sustained GL retreat from at least 2011 to 2020 and resolve mechanisms of ice-shelf melt at the submetre scale. Our conclusions are based on observations of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) from an underwater vehicle, extending from the GL to 3 km oceanward and from the ice–ocean interface to the sea floor. These observations show a rough ice base above a sea floor sloping upward towards the GL and an ocean cavity in which the warmest water exceeds 2 °C above freezing. Data closest to the ice base show that enhanced melting occurs along sloped surfaces that initiate near the GL and evolve into steep-sided terraces. This pronounced melting along steep ice faces, including in crevasses, produces stratification that suppresses melt along flat interfaces. These data imply that slope-dependent melting sculpts the ice base and acts as an important response to ocean warming.