Extreme weather and climate‐related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human‐induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23–41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

CoThis Ch subs wi Attribution ext of Climate Although the t and citations he National e s

Recent extreme weather events and their impacts on societies have highlighted the need for timely adaptation to the changing odds of their occurrence. Such measures require appropriate information about likely changes in event frequency and magnitude on relevant spatiotemporal scales. However, to support robust climate information for decision-making, an effective communication between scientists and stakeholders is crucial. In this context, weather event attribution studies are increasingly raising attention beyond academic circles, although the understanding of how to take it beyond academia is still evolving. This paper presents the results of a study that involved in-depth interviews with stakeholders from a range of sectors about potential applications and the general usefulness of event attribution studies. A case study of the hot and dry summer 2012 in southeast Europe is used as a concrete example, with a focus on the applicability of attribution results across sectors. An analysis of the interviews reveals an abundant interest among the interviewed stakeholders and highlights the need for information on the causes and odds of extreme events, in particular on regional scales. From this data key aspects of stakeholder engagement are emerging, which could productively feed back into how probabilistic event attribution studies are designed and communicated to ensure practical relevance and usefulness for the stakeholder community.

No abstract

No abstract

The rostral cartilages of batoid fishes were examined to elucidate their development, morphology and homology. Comparison of a variety of rostral cartilages among elasmobranchs with other groups of vertebrates shows that rostral cartilages originate embryologically from the trabecula and/or lamina orbitonasalis. Because different morphogenetic patterns of the derivatives of the two embryonic cartilages give rise to a wide variety of forms of rostral cartilages even within elasmobranchs, and because morphogenesis involves complex interactions among participating structures in the ethmo-orbital area, we put forward conceptual and empirical discussions to elucidate the homology of the rostral cartilages in batoid fishes. With six assumptions given in this study and based on recent discussions of biological and historical homology, our discussions centre on: ( 1 ) recognition of complex interactions of participating biological entities in development and evolution; (2) elucidation of a set of interacting biological and evolutionary factors to define a given morphological structure; (3) assessment of causal explanations for similarities or differences between homologous structures by determining genetic, epigenetic and evolutionary factors. Examples of conceptual approaches are given to make the approaches testable. Although a paucity of knowledge of rostral cartilage formation is the major obstacle to thorough analysis of the conceptual framework, several tentative conclusions are made on the homology of rostral cartilages that will hopefully attract more research on development and evolution in vertebrate morphology. These are: (1) the rostral cartilage in each group of vertebrates examined can be defined by both developmentally associated and adult structural attributes, yet such data do not allow us to assess homology of a variety of forms of rostral cartilages at higher taxonomic categories; (2) the entire rostral cartilage in elasmobranchs is formed by the contribution of the embryonic trabecula and lamina orbitonasalis. The status of the development and homology of the rostral cartilage in holocephalans remains uncertain; (3) there is no simple picture of evolution of rostral cartilages among three putative monophyletic assemblages of elasmobranchs, galeomorphs, squaloids (possibly plus Squatina, Chlamydoselachus and hexanchoids as the orbitostylic group) and batoid fishes. It is highly likely that rostral cartilages in each subgroup or subgroups of these assemblages may be of phylogenetic significance but that it may not serve as a basis to unite these assemblages into much higher assemblages; (4) the tripodal rostral cartilage is unique in form in the group including some carcharhinoid and lamnoid sharks. The status of the analogous tripodal cartilage in some squaloids remains uncertain. The unfused tripodal cartilage of the electric ray Narke is interpreted as developmentally equivalent to, but not homologous with, the unfused or fused ones in the sharks; (5) the rostral cartilage in the electric ray Torpedo...

No abstract

Unexpected metabolism in modification and conjugation phases can lead to the failure of many late-stage drug candidates or even withdrawal of approved drugs. Thus, it is critical to predict the sites of metabolism (SoM) for enzymes, which interact with drug-like molecules, in the early stages of the research. This study presents methods for predicting the isoform-specific metabolism for human AOs, FMOs, and UGTs and general CYP metabolism for preclinical species. The models use semi-empirical quantum mechanical simulations, validated using experimentally obtained data and DFT calculations, to estimate the reactivity of each SoM in the context of the whole molecule. Ligand-based models, trained and tested using high-quality regioselectivity data, combine the reactivity of the potential SoM with the orientation and steric effects of the binding pockets of the different enzyme isoforms. The resulting models achieve κ values of up to 0.94 and AUC of up to 0.92.