Food poisoning and environmental pollution are products of excessive chemical usage in Agriculture. In Nigeria, cocoa farmers apply fungicides frequently to control black pod disease (BPD), this practice is life threatening and lethal to the environment. The development of a warning system to detect BPD outbreak can help minimize excessive usage of fungicide by farmers. 8 models (MRM 1-MRM 8) were developed and 5 (MRM 1-MRM 5) selected for optimization and performance check. MRM 5 (ETAPOD) performed better than the other forecast models. ETAPOD had 100% performance rating for BPD prediction

The increasing human population is indeed responsible for the upsurge in the demand for cocoa products and the saddling pressure on the global cocoa market. Sadly, the contributions of some major producers like Nigeria, Brazil, Ghana, to the global cocoa market is dwindling (while others are appreciating). Climate change, diseases and poor farm management have been identified as major factors affecting global cocoa production. Nigeria, was the major focus of this research. Cocoa farms were investigated (Nigeria only), black pod disease (BPD) pressure was described by ETAPOD (a model for black pod disease prediction), while climate and cocoa production data were obtained from the relevant databases. On the global scene, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, Brazil, Ecuador and Colombia experienced shortfall in their contribution to global cocoa production from 26.15, 20.55, 7.45, 12.14, 4.07, and 1.40%, respectively (1970s), to 16.99, 6.31, 5.67, 4.54, 3.96, and 1.09%, respectively (2000s). Cross River State, Nigeria's leading producer of cocoa (1970–1990s) is currently ranked 3rd in the nation. Unfortunately, cocoa farmers in Nigeria are completely dependent on pesticide application (100%) to save their crops. A prognosis of global BPD outbreak showed that Honduras (15.1%) and Lagos, Nigeria (14.4%) are foremost hotspots for BPD invasion. Hopefully, scientific advancement in cocoa production might be the key to these problems.

11Black pod disease (BPD) has been and still remains a major threat to cocoa farmers worldwide 12 due to its annual recurrence, fast spread and highly destructive nature. The disease has caused 13 great anxiety in many cocoa producing communities due to the inability of indigenous cocoa 14 farmers to determine when and where BPD outbreak will take place. Twelve (12) stations were 15 structured from four important cocoa-producing States in the Southwestern region of Nigeria. An 16 investigation of BPD outbreak was conducted in 2015/2016 within these regions. Infected cocoa 17 pods and topsoil samples were collected for laboratory analysis. Pests attack, cherelle wilt and 18 BPD outbreak were seasonal with 50% chances of occurrence in all the stations. Black pod 19diseases outbreak was recorded in all the States (100%) during the rainy season. The disease was 20 at its peak in August 2015 in almost all the stations (station 1 (30.0%), station 3 (23.0%), station 21 11 (16.0%), station 4 (9.0%), station 5 (7.0%), and station 8 (3.0%). The height of disease 22 severity was in September 2015 (station 1 (100.0%), station 3 (96.7%), station 5 (85.7%), station 23 11 (84.3%), and station 4 (70.0%), with station 8 reaching the 100% mark in October 2015. Most 24 cocoa farmlands are now being abandoned, unless concerted efforts are made to effectively 25 manage the disease, BPD will greatly reduce cocoa production in Nigeria and around the world. 26

Background: Phytophthora megakarya is an invasive pathogen endemic to Central and West Africa. This species causes the most devastating form of black pod disease. Despite the deleterious impacts of this disease on cocoa production, there is no information on the geographic distribution of P. megakarya. Aim: In this study, we investigated the potential geographic distribution of P. megakarya in cocoa-producing regions of the world using ecological niche modelling. Methods: Occurrence records of P. megakarya in Central and West Africa were compiled from published studies. We selected relevant climatic and edaphic predictor variables in the indigenous range of this species to generate 14 datasets of climate-only, soil-only, and a combination of both data types. For each dataset, we calibrated 100 candidate MaxEnt models using 20 regularisation multiplier values and five feature classes. The best model was selected from statistically significant candidates with an omission rate ≤ 5% and the lowest Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes, and projected onto cocoa-producing regions in Southeast Asia, Central and South America. The risk of extrapolation in model transfer was measured using the mobility-oriented parity (MOP) metric. Results: We found an optimal goodness-of-fit and complexity for candidate models incorporating both climate and soil data. Predictions of the model with the best performance showed that nearly all of Central Africa, especially areas in Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and southern Cameroon are at risk of black pod disease. In West Africa, suitable environments were observed along the Atlantic coast, from southern Nigeria to Gambia. Our analysis suggested that P. megakarya is capable of subsisting outside its native range, at least in terms of climatic and edaphic factors. Model projections identified likely suitable areas, especially in Brazil and Colombia, from southwestern Mexico down to Panama, and across the Caribbean islands in the Americas, and in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea in Asia and adjacent areas Conclusion: The outcomes of this study would be useful for developing measures aimed at preventing the spread of this pathogen in the tropics.

No abstract