Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.
In many high-rise residential buildings or multi-storey warehouses, machinery, so called lifts, are used for the vertical transportation of people or weights between attitudinally distant places. Carriers used for lifts are steel ropes or sprocket chains, on which a cage or a counterbalance is hinged. Apparatus of all carriers, attached to the hinge of the cage or counterbalance, should be even. This can be hundred percently made only by hammer hinge. Fixed or springe hinge cannot be a perfect equalizing apparatus. This article describes an apparatus, which allows an even distribution of the strain into lift carriers, which use springe hinge of carrier ropes.
This paper is dedicated to investigating the properties of smooth conveyor belts through a tensile loading test, with the aim of examining the behavior of the inner structure of the belt samples. When the belt is subjected to a long-term strain, the belt relaxation effect is observed and changes may occur to the inner structure of the belt. The tensile test at constant velocity determines the load strength limit of the strip samples. The experiment has also shown the phenomenon of relaxation of the samples after the load. Metro-tomographic analysis is used to observe the behavior of the internal structure of the belt sample after the load. The obtained results indicate the initial damage of the inner structure of the conveyor belt occurred at the value of 2157 N. Under this load, the maximum damage size was 4.8 mm. This confirms the suitability of the method for tracking changes in the internal structure.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.