Abstract:The evolution of many economic variables is affected by expectations that economic agents have with respect to the future development of these variables. Here we show, by means of laboratory experiments, that market behavior depends to a large extent on how the realized market price responds to an increase in average price expectations. If it responds by decreasing, as in commodity markets, prices converge quickly to their equilibrium value, confirming the rational expectations hypothesis. If the realized price increases after an increase of average expectations, as is typical for financial markets, large fluctuations in realized prices are likely.

The New Keynesian theory of inflation determination is tested in this paper by means of laboratory experiments. We find that the Taylor principle is a necessary condition to ensure convergence to the inflation target, but it is not sufficient. Using a behavioral model of expectation formation, we show how heterogeneous expectations tend to self-organize on different forecasting strategies depending on monetary policy. Finally, we link the central bank ability to control inflation to the impact that monetary policy has on the type of feedback -positive or negative-between expectations and realizations of aggregate variables and in turn on the composition of subjects with respect to the type of forecasting rules they use.

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An experimental study on expectations and learning in overlapping generations models Heemeijer, P.; Hommes, C.H.; Sonnemans, J.H.; Tuinstra, J. Published in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics DOI:10. 1515/1558-3708.1944 Link to publication Citation for published version (APA):Heemeijer, P., Hommes, C. H., Sonnemans, J., & Tuinstra, J. (2012). An experimental study on expectations and learning in overlapping generations models. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 16(4), [1]. DOI: 10.1515DOI: 10. /1558DOI: 10. -3708.1944 General rights It is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Disclaimer/Complaints regulationsIf you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: http://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible. AbstractA plethora of models of learning has been developed and studied in macro-economic models in recent years. In this paper we will try to discriminate between these learning models by running laboratory experiments with incentivized human subjects. Participants predict inflation rates for 50 successive periods in a standard overlapping generations model and are rewarded on the basis of their forecasting accuracy. The information set for each participant contains the past inflation rates and the participant's own past predictions which, in turn, determine the actual inflation rate. We consider two treatments, with a low and a high level of monetary growth, respectively. We find that the level of convergence to the monetary steady state is significantly lower and volatility of inflation rates higher in the second treatment. Constant gain learning algorithms, such as adaptive expectations with a low adjustment parameter, seem to provide a better description of the experimental data than decreasing gain algorithms, such as (ordinary) least squares learning. Moreover, many participants switch between prediction strategies during the experiment on the basis of poor performance of their initial prediction strategy. * We thank the participants to the Workshop on Interacting Agents on Nonlinear Dynamics in Macroeconomics, in Udine, Italy, June 9-11, 2010 and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions.Brought to you by | Universiteit van Amsterdam -UVA Universiteitsbibliotheek SZ