[1] Computational modeling of Earth system processes often requires simplifying assumptions of the real system. These necessary assumptions result in the definition of internal model parameters that can take a number of different values but must be explicitly defined for any one model simulation. The main issue with such an uncertain multidimensional input space is that many simulations are needed to adequately explore it. This study presents a generalized parameter screening experiment for use in future earth system modeling. This approach identifies model parameters that dominate uncertainty, therefore reducing to a manageable number the simulations required to explore the input space. The approach we adopt is relatively inexpensive to implement and can be applied at both the aggregate and disaggregate (e.g., regional) level. To demonstrate the potential of such a method, it is applied to a surface mass balance model of intermediate complexity over the Greenland ice sheet. All identified parameters were related to the surface melt parameterization, with albedo parameters being identified as the most important. Spatial distributions of the parameter sensitivities show that, in recent years, most parameter sensitivities are concentrated around the southwest and northern ice sheet margins. Simulations for the 21st century indicate an increase in sensitivity in these high melt areas especially in the northeast. Melt contributions from temperature and radiative effects are shown to be important on the order of parameters identified, and as a consequence, sensitivities are dependent on the present climate used for modeling surface mass balance.Citation: Fitzgerald, P. W., J. L. Bamber, J. K. Ridley, and J. C. Rougier (2012), Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet,
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.