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Climatic variability exerts tremendous influence on the livelihoods and well-being of pastoralists who inhabit the arid and semi-arid lands of the Horn of Africa. Recent advances in climate forecasting technologies have raised the intriguing prospect of reasonably accurate forecasts of coming seasons' rainfall patterns. Several donors and governments in the region are keenly interested in these technologies and in developing forecast delivery channels on the assumption that this information will prove valuable to the vulnerable populations it is meant to help not only indirectly, as an input into top-down early warning systems, but also directly, as a basis for improving choice under uncertainty. We explore the value of such external climate forecast information to pastoralists in a large study area spanning southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya using original data collected using both open-ended qualitative methods to identify and understand indigenous climate forecasting methods and quantitative data collected using survey instruments fielded in two rounds, one before and one after the long rains of 2001. The data show that pastoralists rely heavily on indigenous forecasting methods-in terms of having both access to and confidence in these methods-while external forecasts are less commonly received or believed. We elicited pastoralists' subjective, probabilistic expectations of the coming season's rainfall and find that neither use of nor belief in external forecasts causes any appreciable change in respondents' seasonal rainfall expectations. Moreover, relatively few pastoralists act on their own climate expectations, no matter how formed. In sum, climate forecast information does not seem a limiting factor at present in pastoralist communities in the Horn of Africa, not least of which because of the existence of a vibrant and still-relevant tradition of indigenous forecasting.

This article addresses processes of livelihood diversification among pastoralists in the rangelands of northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia. The objectives of the article are threefold: (1) to suggest a theoretical framework for addressing income diversification among pastoralists with reference to current literature and databases; (2) to present a case study on pastoral income diversification based on preliminary field research in northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia; and (3) to summarize current understandings of pastoral diversification while pointing to additional empirical research needs. By showing how comparative analyses in the region have been constrained by theoretical and data deficiencies, the article explores ways in which income diversification differs by what are termed conditional, opportunity, and local response variables. Climate, distance to market towns, gender, wealth, and education are attributes covered by these variables and discussed in the article. The conceptualization and case study provide useful bases for conducting comparative research on pastoral diversification in East Africa specifically, and in sub-Saharan Africa generally.

Understanding and alleviating poverty in Africa continues to receive considerable attention by a range of diverse actors, including politicians, international celebrities, academics, activists, and practitioners. Despite the onslaught of interest, there surprisingly is little agreement on what constitutes poverty in rural Africa, how it should be assessed, and what should be done to alleviate it. Based on data from an interdisciplinary study of pastoralism in northern Kenya, this article examines issues of poverty among one of the continent's most vulnerable groups, pastoralists, and challenges the application of such orthodox proxies as incomes/expenditures, geographic remoteness, and market integration. It argues that current poverty debates 'homogenize' the concept of 'pastoralist' by failing to acknowledge the diverse livelihoods and wealth differentiation that fall under the term. The article concludes that what is not needed is another development label (stereotype) that equates pastoralism with poverty, thereby empowering outside interests to transform rather than strengthen pastoral livelihoods.3

Journal article"This article discusses the impact of drought on poverty dynamics in the South Wollo area of northeastern Ethiopia. Using both survey and anthropological/qualitative data covering a six-year period, the paper assesses which households were able to hold on to assets and recover from the 1999–2000 drought and which were not." -- from Author's AbstractISI; IFPRI3; DCADSGDP

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