The main objective of this paper is to elaborate econometric model forecasting the stocks of migrants from the Eastern European states (EES) in the Visegrad group (V4) countries and the European Union Member States (EU MS) in case of visa abolition. We use the data span of 2008-2012 and the econometric techniques known as Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), Panel data Least Squares (PLS) and General method of moments (GMM) to build three types of possible scenarios for migration from the Eastern European countries (Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine) to the V4 and to the EU as a whole in the next 35 years, i.e. until the year of 2050 with a simulated shock of visa abolition set at the year of 2015. Our results show that hypothetical visa abolition is not going to dramatically increase migration from the Eastern European countries in the EU Member States. Even though the immediate effect of visa abolition would probably result in the slight increase of migration stocks in the V4 and EU countries, the annual migration stocks comprised of residents of Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine in the EU MS in a long term might be around from one and a half to just above three-three and a half million people. Furthermore, a successful accession period with high growth and implementation of the reforms is actually leading to elimination of the migration pressures. More precisely, the citizens of Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine that had the strongest incentives to migrate have already done so long before the visas are eventually abolished.
ABSTRACT. The European Union represents a unique example of the most complexly developed and the most comprehensive model of regional economic integration. This is characterized by high dynamics of the integration process, while in its current form, even under the influence and action of the whole range of factors having a negative impact; it is indicating a gradual transition to the deployment phase of a political Union. For a relatively long period of time, the European Union remained as of one of the three main pillars of world economy and it has been trying to maintain this position even in this turbulent period. In this direction the European Union proceeded with the implementation of two major development strategies, affecting the whole of its interior space of the Lisbon Strategy and the Strategy Europe 2020, as well as the entire spectrum of so called macro-regional strategies (the European Union Strategy for the Danube Region, the European Union Strategy for the Mediterranean Region and the European Union Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region). In this paper we will focus mainly on the analysis of the range of the process of implementation of the Strategy Europe 2020 in the Slovak Republic as one of the EU member states.
Like many developed countries in the world, China currently faces many serious demographic challenges that pose a potential risk to the country’s socio-economic development and stability. The current demographic development and trend is characterized by a change in the reproductive behavior of the population, characterized by a decline in birth rates, a change in family behavior, and a shift in the value system. This paper is aimed at identifying the impact of population policy and the degree of its influence on both the economic and social system of the country. Based on a deterministic approach, the findings reveal and demonstrate the serious demographic challenges facing China, and we are noting that there is no guarantee that parametric adjustments, such as shifting the retirement age, will de facto ensure the financial health of the pension system by preventing bankruptcy. We point out the risks and prospects for the sustainability of China’s socio-economic development based on an analysis of past and current Chinese demographic policy.
It has been 15 years since the V4 countries joined the EU, during which individual states have undergone significant economic development. However, the dynamics of individual countries, the economic results achieved and, above all, the intra-regional development are very diverse. GDP per capita was chosen as a reference object for the analysis of their economic development, both at national and regional level. From a methodological point of view at the regional level, we analyse NUTS 2 regions where we can obtain relevant indicators within Eurostat. The aim is thus to capture and analyse GDP per capita economic development, to compare national differences over the past 14 years, to identify possible common development trends or differences. To better understand national economic developments, we will also analyse the level of individual regions as significant interregional differences in these countries have persisted over a long term. The aim is to identify whether the current development is leading to a greater deepening of interregional differences or, on the contrary, to levelling of them.
Purpose. This paper evaluates the involvement of three selected agricultural commodities (rice, coffee and soya) in international trade. The aim is to analyze the specification of foreign trade in selected commodities and assess their different significance between representations in domestic markets and exports. This article will also assess other contexts related to international trade in these three commodities, including the negative effects on their trade. Based on the set goal, a research question was asked which evaluates the different position of the examined agricultural commodities on world export markets in relation to domestic consumption. Methodology / approach. The theoretical anchoring of the issue under study are the approaches taken to international economic relations with the emphasis on the specific features of agricultural trade. The methodological framework of the present study is based on the systematic analysis of the spatial distribution of production capacities, the territorial analysis of exports and imports within the world agricultural market and qualitative evaluation of the specifics of selected export commodities and their role in the economy of countries, including labour market importance and in the possibilities of their use. Results. The paper presents the results of the involvement of the rice, coffee and soya in international trade analysis. Most rice production is consumed on domestic markets. Unlike rice, most of the coffee produced is exported and less is consumed within the growing countries themselves. Although domestic coffee consumption is increasing, more than 70% of world production is exported. Soya bean production has increased significantly over the past 50 years as a result of the rising demand for animal feedstuff and biofuels. Almost three quarters of soya bean production is consumed as feedstuff. Originality / scientific novelty. The main contribution of the article is in the application level the elaboration of a comparative view of three selected agricultural commodities. At the theoretical level of the study, it represents a contribution to the discussion within the approaches to the organization of global agricultural trade, the interdependence of economic policies of states, trade ties and the impact on labour markets in relation to production. Agricultural commodities remain an important item in world international trade. However, their share in the total volume is gradually declining. They play an important role in the maintenance of individual countries, but at the same time they are of great economic importance, although we can also mention the less positive aspects of their production, including their impact on the environment. At the same time, it is necessary to realize that this sector is essential for human survival and also that agriculture is important from the point of food security for the population, which can contribute to and increase the level of agricultural protectionism (resilience to world market disruptions or uncontrolled import of genetically modified (GM) food and the transmission of animal diseases). Agriculture is one of the most sensitive economic sectors in the world. Nevertheless, agricultural exports have several economic benefits, including stimulating a wide range of agricultural-related industries, transport suppliers, processing and farm inputs. Practical value / implications. The production of agricultural commodities is of great importance to the economies of individual states, where it contributes to the creation of direct, indirect and induced jobs. The agrarian sector is a key sector, especially for less developed countries. The analysis confirmed the high tradability of all commodities examined and is documented by their involvement in the international division of labour in the global projection.
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