The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Determining the spread and potential geographical distribution of invasive species is integral to making invasion biology a predictive science. We assembled a dataset of over 1000 occurrences of the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile), one of the world's worst invasive alien species. Native to central South America, Argentine ants are now found in many Mediterranean and subtropical climates around the world. We used this dataset to assess the species' potential geographical and ecological distribution, and to examine changes in its distributional potential associated with global climate change, using techniques for ecological niche modelling. Models developed were highly predictive of the species' overall range, including both the native distributional area and invaded areas worldwide. Despite its already widespread occurrence, L. humile has potential for further spread, with tropical coastal Africa and southeast Asia apparently vulnerable to invasion. Projecting ecological niche models onto four general circulation model scenarios of future (2050s) climates provided scenarios of the species' potential for distributional expansion with warming climates: generally, the species was predicted to retract its range in tropical regions, but to expand at higher latitude areas.

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Aim  Two main mechanisms may explain post‐disturbance species colonization patterns of early successional habitats such as those originated by wildfires. First, post‐disturbance colonization is not limited by the dispersal ability of the species to reach the newly created open areas and, secondly, colonization is limited by dispersal. Under the first hypothesis, we expect, at a regional scale, to find similar post‐disturbance communities to develop on recently burned sites. However, colonization limited by dispersal will lead to strong between‐site variations in species composition. Location  To test these hypotheses, we studied the post‐fire colonization patterns of nine open‐habitat bird species in eight distantly located wildfires in the north‐eastern Iberian Peninsula. Methods  We censused post‐fire bird composition by means of field transects and identified potential colonization sources from species–habitat suitability maps derived from atlas data. Results  Our results showed strong significant differences in post‐fire species composition between burnt areas. Burnt areas located in areas with low probability of species presence before the fire event showed lower species occurrence and richness after the fire. Main conclusions  These results do not support the idea that early successional stages and open habitats have a homogeneous community structure at regional scales and suggest that dispersal is a key constraint determining bird colonization of post‐fire habitats. Further attention should be paid to landscape heterogeneity as a key factor in determining population dynamics of open‐habitat species in the light of current and future land‐use changes in Mediterranean regions.

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