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SignificanceInformation on cohort fertility is critical for the understanding of population dynamics, but only in historical settings can it be calculated without forecasting. Several forecasting methods exist, but their strengths and weaknesses have not been evaluated. Relying on the Human Fertility Database, the largest high-quality fertility dataset to date, and the globally representative United Nations World Population Prospects, we present an assessment of all major methods that complete cohort fertility. This analysis is crucial to advance the understanding of benefits and drawbacks of state-of-the-art methods. We analyze forecast accuracy and uncertainty quantification, identify methodological breakthroughs, and uncover unresolved issues. This study constitutes an evaluation benchmark for cohort fertility forecasting and may inspire establishment of similar evaluation benchmarks in related fields.

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