Creating multiyear cycles in population density demands, in traditional models, causal factors that operate on local populations in a density-dependent way with time lags. However, cycles of the geometrid Epirrita autumnata in northern Europe may be regional, not local; i.e., successive outbreaks occur in different localities. We review possible causes of cycles of E. autumnata under both local and regional scenarios, including large-scale synchrony. Assuming cyclicity is a local phenomenon, individual populations of E. autumnata display peaks but populations all over the outbreak range fluctuate in synchrony. This concept assumes that the peaks at most localities are so low that they do not lead to visible defoliation and easily remain unnoticed. In this scenario, populations are able to start recovery a few years after the crash, i.e., at the time of the mitigation of detrimental delayed density-dependent factors, such as delayed inducible resistance of the host plant or parasitism. In that case, the same factors that lead to crashes also explain the periodicity of cyclic fluctuations. According to the regional cyclicity scenario, different factors can be important in different phases of the cycle. The key is to identify the factors that tend to produce outbreaks with a periodicity of about 10 years. Initiation of the increase phase seems to coincide with maxima in sunspot activity, but causal connections remain unclear. Climatic factor(s) associated with the solar cycle could contribute to the large-scale geographic synchrony.

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Summary 0[ We studied the e}ect of pupal predation on Epirrita autumnata populations within and outside the outbreak range\ in northern and southern Finland\ respectively[ The purpose of the study was to evaluate the potential of pupal predation to contribute to the contrasting dynamics of northern and southern populations[ In addition to overall pupal survival\ we separately estimated the in~uence of small mammal and invertebrate predation[ 1[ Each summer for a period of 4 years\ pupae inside their cocoons were buried in the ground[ The pupae were re!collected before the~ight season and checked for damage[ Direct and delayed density dependence of pupal survival was tested using the current and the previous year larval density indices\ respectively[ 2[ Annual survival of pupae from both small mammal and invertebrate predation was lower in the south[ Daily survival rates did not di}er between the south and the north indicating that the di}erence in annual pupal survival is most likely due to the longer pupal period in the south[ 3[ In the south\ pupal survival was negatively density dependent and resulted from small mammal predation[ The results indicate that small mammals may prevent E[ autumnata populations from reaching high densities in the south[ 4[ In the northern study area with a current outbreak\ total pupal survival was density independent[ Also small mammal predation was density independent\ most likely due to predator satiation[ Moreover\ there was no di}erence in pupal survival between northern areas with and without a current outbreak[ The results indicate that pupal predation was not a signi_cant factor in termination of the outbreak\ nor is it likely to contribute to the maintenance of the cyclic density~uctuations[ 5[ We conclude that low pupal survival and its density dependence are likely to contribute to stability of E[ autumnata populations in southern Fennoscandia[ On the contrary\ shorter pupal period and the lack of density dependent pupal predation may make northern populations more prone to outbreaks[ The potential regulating e}ect of pupal predation in southern populations is due to small mammals being able to respond to changes in E[ autumnata densities[

Numerous studies conducted in agro-ecosystems support the enemies hypothesis, which states that predators and parasites are more efficient in controlling pest densities in polycultures than in monocultures. Few similar studies, however, have been conducted in forest ecosystems, and we do not yet have evidence as to whether the enemies hypothesis holds true in forests. In a 2-year study, we investigated whether the survival of autumnal moth ( Epirrita autumnata) larvae and pupae differs between silver birch monocultures and two-species mixtures of birch with black alder, Norway spruce and Scots pine. We placed young larvae on birch saplings and monitored their survival until the end of the larval period, when we checked whether they had been parasitized. After the larvae had pupated, pupal survival was tested in a field trial. In 2002, the larvae disappeared earlier and their overall survival was lower in birch-pine mixtures than in other stand types. In 2003, survival probability was lowest in birch-pine stands only during the first week and there were no differences between stands in overall survival. Larval parasitism was not affected by tree species composition. Pupal weight and pupal survival were likewise not affected by stand type. Among the predators, wood ants were more abundant on birches growing in birch-pine mixtures than in other stand types probably because colonies of myrmecophilic aphids were common on pines. In contrast, spider numbers did not differ between stand types. Ant exclusion by means of a glue ring around the birch trunk increased larval survival, indicating that ants are important predators of the autumnal moth larvae; differences in larval survival between stands are probably due to differential ant predation. Our results provide only partial support for the enemies hypothesis, and suggest that it is both tree species composition and species diversity which affect herbivore survival and predation.

In birch, Betula pubescens, herbivore-induced delayed induced resistance (DIR) of defoliated trees may cause a strong reduction in the potential fecundity of a geometrid folivore Epirrita autumnata. In this study, we examined the biochemical basis of DIR in birch leaves during a natural outbreak of E. autumnata. A set of experimental trees was defoliated at four sites by wild larvae in the peak year of the outbreak, whereas control trees were protected from defoliation by spraying with an insecticide. The biochemical composition of leaves was analysed in the following year and, although the DIR response was weak during this outbreak, causing less than a 20% reduction in the potential fecundity of E. autumnata, some consistent relationships between defoliation, biochemistry and pupal mass of E. autumnata suggested a general biochemical basis for the defoliation-induced responses in birch leaves. Total concentrations of nitrogen, sugars and acetone-insoluble residue (e.g. cell wall polysaccharides, cell-wall-bound phenolics, protein, starch, lignin and hemicellulose) were consistently lower, and total concentrations of phenolics, especially of gallotannins and soluble proanthocyanidins, were higher in the leaves of trees defoliated in the previous year than in those protected from defoliation. The capacity of tannins to precipitate proteins correlated with contents of gallotannins, and was highest in defoliated trees. The pupal mass of E. autumnata showed a strong, positive correlation with concentrations of nitrogen and sugars, and a negative correlation with the acetone-insoluble residue and gallotannins in foliage. Correlations with other measured biochemical traits were weak. The correlation coefficients between biochemical traits and pupal mass consistently had similar signs for both defoliated and insecticide-sprayed trees, suggesting that variation in leaf quality due to defoliation in the previous year was based on similar biochemical traits as variation for other reasons. We suggest that DIR is associated with reduced growth activity of leaves, and may be seen as a delay in the biochemical maturation of leaves in defoliated trees. This explains the high concentration of gallotannins in defoliated trees, a characteristic feature of young leaves. However, the lower content of nitrogen and the higher content of soluble proanthocyanidins in defoliated trees are traits usually characterising mature, not young, leaves, indicating defoliation-induced changes in chemistry in addition to modified leaf age. Our results emphasise the importance of understanding the natural changes in chemistry during leaf maturation when interpreting defoliation-induced changes in leaf biochemistry.