This paper is a report of a second round of RNA-Puzzles, a collective and blind experiment in three-dimensional (3D) RNA structure prediction. Three puzzles, Puzzles 5, 6, and 10, represented sequences of three large RNA structures with limited or no homology with previously solved RNA molecules. A lariat-capping ribozyme, as well as riboswitches complexed to adenosylcobalamin and tRNA, were predicted by seven groups using RNAComposer, ModeRNA/SimRNA, Vfold, Rosetta, DMD, MC-Fold, 3dRNA, and AMBER refinement. Some groups derived models using data from state-of-the-art chemicalmapping methods (SHAPE, DMS, CMCT, and mutate-and-map). The comparisons between the predictions and the three subsequently released crystallographic structures, solved at diffraction resolutions of 2.5-3.2 Å, were carried out automatically using various sets of quality indicators. The comparisons clearly demonstrate the state of present-day de novo prediction abilities as well as the limitations of these state-of-the-art methods. All of the best prediction models have similar topologies to the native structures, which suggests that computational methods for RNA structure prediction can already provide useful structural information for biological problems. However, the prediction accuracy for non-Watson-Crick interactions, key to proper folding of RNAs, is low and some predicted models had high Clash Scores. These two difficulties point to some of the continuing bottlenecks in RNA structure prediction. All submitted models are available for download at http://ahsoka.u-strasbg .fr/rnapuzzles/.

BackgroundThe ever increasing discovery of non-coding RNAs leads to unprecedented demand for the accurate modeling of RNA folding, including the predictions of two-dimensional (base pair) and three-dimensional all-atom structures and folding stabilities. Accurate modeling of RNA structure and stability has far-reaching impact on our understanding of RNA functions in human health and our ability to design RNA-based therapeutic strategies.ResultsThe Vfold server offers a web interface to predict (a) RNA two-dimensional structure from the nucleotide sequence, (b) three-dimensional structure from the two-dimensional structure and the sequence, and (c) folding thermodynamics (heat capacity melting curve) from the sequence. To predict the two-dimensional structure (base pairs), the server generates an ensemble of structures, including loop structures with the different intra-loop mismatches, and evaluates the free energies using the experimental parameters for the base stacks and the loop entropy parameters given by a coarse-grained RNA folding model (the Vfold model) for the loops. To predict the three-dimensional structure, the server assembles the motif scaffolds using structure templates extracted from the known PDB structures and refines the structure using all-atom energy minimization.ConclusionsThe Vfold-based web server provides a user friendly tool for the prediction of RNA structure and stability. The web server and the source codes are freely accessible for public use at “http://rna.physics.missouri.edu”.

RNA-Puzzles is a collective endeavor dedicated to the advancement and improvement of RNA 3D structure prediction. With agreement from crystallographers, the RNA structures are predicted by various groups before the publication of the crystal structures. We now report the prediction of 3D structures for six RNA sequences: four nucleolytic ribozymes and two riboswitches. Systematic protocols for comparing models and crystal structures are described and analyzed. In these six puzzles, we discuss (i) the comparison between the automated web servers and human experts; (ii) the prediction of coaxial stacking; (iii) the prediction of structural details and ligand binding; (iv) the development of novel prediction methods; and (v) the potential improvements to be made. We show that correct prediction of coaxial stacking and tertiary contacts is essential for the prediction of RNA architecture, while ligand binding modes can only be predicted with low resolution and simultaneous prediction of RNA structure with accurate ligand binding still remains out of reach. All the predicted models are available for the future development of force field parameters and the improvement of comparison and assessment tools.

We report a new computational approach to the prediction of RNA secondary structure folding kinetics. In this approach, each elementary kinetic step is represented as the transformation between two secondary structures that differ by a helix. Based on the free energy landscape analysis, we identify three types of dominant pathways and the rate constants for the kinetic steps: 1), formation; 2), disruption of a helix stem; and 3), helix formation with concomitant partial melting of a competing (incompatible) helix. The third pathway, termed the tunneling pathway, is the low-barrier dominant pathway for the conversion between two incompatible helices. Comparisons with experimental data indicate that this new method is quite reliable in predicting the kinetics for RNA secondary structural folding and structural rearrangements. The approach presented here may provide a robust first step for further systematic development of a predictive theory for the folding kinetics for large RNAs.

We develop a systematic helix-based computational method to predict RNA folding kinetics during transcription. In our method, the transcription is modeled as stepwise process, where each step is the transcription of a nucleotide. For each step, the kinetics algorithm predicts the population kinetics, transition pathways, folding intermediates, and the transcriptional folding products. The folding pathways, rate constants, and the conformational populations for cotranscription folding show contrastingly different features than the refolding kinetics for a fully transcribed chain. The competition between the transcription speed and rate constants for the transitions between the different nascent structures determines the RNA folding pathway and the end product of folding. For example, fast transcription favors the formation of branch-like structures than rod-like structures and chain elongation in the folding process may reduce the probability of the formation of misfolded structures. Furthermore, good theory-experiment agreements suggest that our method may provide a reliable tool for quantitative prediction for cotranscriptional RNA folding, including the kinetics for the population distribution for the whole conformational ensemble.