The monsoon onset is a critical event in the Bangladesh calendar, especially for the domestic agricultural sector. Providing information about the monsoon onset for the past, present, and future has potential benefit for a country so vulnerable to changes in climate. But, when does the monsoon start? To produce any scientific information about monsoon onsets, lengths, and withdrawals, we first need to apply a monsoon definition to our data. Choosing a scientific definition is not such a simple exercise in Bangladesh. Different definitions lead to different monsoon onsets and thereby also monsoon lengths. If a climate application aims to provide information about the monsoon onset, then we need to understand how the people who might use this information perceive the monsoon onset. We then need to understand how their perceptions compare with previous scientific work. In this study we carried out a structured questionnaire in six rural regions around Bangladesh and asked the local agriculturists how they defined the monsoon and when they thought it started. It turns out that the agriculturists and previous scientific publications do not necessarily agree. Our results do not undermine previous scientific work on the monsoon in Bangladesh, but they do carry an important message about how we should design, implement, and evaluate climate applications in Bangladesh that encompass the monsoon onset.
ABSTRACT. Salinization in coastal regions of Bangladesh challenges sustainable development of different sectors like agriculture, forestry, fisheries, livestock, and health. Particularly its southwest region largely faces increased salinity risks because of its geographical location and environmental settings. This study analyzes the causes of salinity increase, their cascading impacts on different coastal systems, and their livelihood implications, and assesses potential coping measures through innovative adaptation pathways for the most affected coastal systems. These pathways integrate bottom-up and top-down perceptions in adaptation planning through a driverpressure-state-impact-response framework, multicriteria analysis, and adaptation turning point approaches. We surveyed 200 households and interviewed 20 key informants. We observed that household-level respondents' perceptions are more closely related to socioeconomic aspects than to the biophysical environmental aspects and focus on issue-based action. However, the key informants focus more on the biophysical changes and the large-scale measures. The developed framework shows that salinity increase is an interconnected process of climatic-social-ecological-economic systems in the coastal environment. It also shows that responses already taken, i.e., polders and shrimp farming, to cope with salinization have later become pressures, i.e., riverbed siltation, waterlogging, and intensive salinization, on the systems. In total, we identified six interconnected causes of salinity increase and 24 potential measures to address them. Also we distinguished three coastal systems, i.e., crop-agriculture, drinking water sources, and the Sundarbans mangrove, most affected by salinity increase. Finally we proposed 16 adaptation pathways for these coastal systems based on the multicriteria analysis and adaptation turning points of the potential measures.
Climate information services (CIS) are increasingly in demand to assist farmers in managing risks associated with climate variability and extremes experienced in food production. However, there are significant gaps in the availability and accessibility of these services, especially in aquatic food production in developing countries. In response, this study aims to generate the background knowledge for developing climate information and decision support services tailored for aquaculture farmers in Bangladesh. We surveyed 800 fish-farming households, interviewed 30 key informants, and conducted a systematic literature review to identify climate-sensitive operations and management decisions in aquaculture and to document fish-farmers' awareness of the relationships between climate variability and aquatic food production systems. We also sought to identify the lead time and communication method(s) needed to deploy forecasts effectively and prepare aquaculture farmers to act in response to the forecasts. A fish-farming activity calendar was developed that identified high temperature, cold spell, heavy rainfall, and dry spell events as key climatic phenomena affecting year-round aquaculture operations, including pond preparation and maintenance, fingerling stocking, grow-out management, and harvesting. We also identified five climate-sensitive management decision points and 26 potential advisories in line with specific climate variability to manage induced risks in the day-to-day operations of fish farmers. Finally, the research team developed a decision framework based on the temperature and rainfall thresholds for the grow-out phase of four widely cultivated and economically important fish species in Bangladesh. This innovative decision support approach is to our knowledge the very first endeavor to develop CIS using species-specific temperature and rainfall thresholds to reduce climate risks and ensure resilience capacity for South Asian aquaculture system.
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