Understanding the dynamics of native forest loss and gain is critical for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services, especially in regions experiencing intense forest transformations. We quantified native forest cover dynamics on an annual basis from 1990 to 2017 in Brazil’s Atlantic Forest. Despite the relative stability of native forest cover during this period (~28 Mha), the ongoing loss of older native forests, mostly on flatter terrains, have been hidden by the increasing gain of younger native forest cover, mostly on marginal lands for mechanized agriculture. Changes in native forest cover and its spatial distribution increased forest isolation in 36.4% of the landscapes. The clearance of older forests associated with the recut of 27% of younger forests has resulted in a progressive rejuvenation of the native forest cover. We highlight the need to include native forest spatiotemporal dynamics into restoration programs to better estimate their expected benefits and unexpected problems.

Natural forest regeneration is a key component of global ecosystem restoration scenarios. Regenerated forests, however, may not persist and a better understanding of the drivers of forest persistence is critical to ensure the success of restoration efforts. We used 35 years of detailed land cover maps to quantify forest regeneration and study the drivers of regenerated forest persistence and longevity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, a restoration hotspot. We mapped over 4.47 Mha of native forest regenerated in the region between 1985 and 2019, of which, two thirds persisted until 2019 (3.1 Mha). However, mean age of ephemeral (i.e., cleared before 2019) forest regeneration was only 7.9 years, suggesting a rapid turnover of regrowing forests under certain conditions. Regenerated forests had greater longevity and probability of persistence in steeper slopes, close to rivers and existing forests, near permanent agriculture, and in areas with higher Gross Development Product and agricultural yield, but were less likely to persist in areas with higher rural-urban population ratios. Regeneration occurred predominantly in pasturelands and areas of shifting agriculture, but it was also less likely to persist within these dynamic landscapes. Specific public policies should stimulate forest regeneration in areas of consolidated agriculture, where forest permanence tends to be higher. The ephemerality of forest regeneration in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest highlights the importance of favorable conditions and policies that promote second-growth forest persistence in tropical regions. Conservation of regenerating forests is critical for meeting national and global restoration and climate mitigation goals.

Although deforestation remains widespread in the tropics, many places are now experiencing significant forest recovery (i.e., forest transition), offering an optimistic outlook for natural ecosystem recovery and carbon sequestration. Naturally regenerated forests, however, may not persist, so a more nuanced understanding of the drivers of forest change in the tropics is critical to ensure the success of reforestation efforts and carbon sequestration targets. Here we use 35 years of detailed land cover data to investigate forest trajectories in 3014 municipalities in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF), a biodiversity and conservation hotspot. Although deforestation was evident in some regions, deforestation reversals, the typical forest transition trajectory, were the prevalent trend in the AF, accounting for 38% of municipalities. However, simultaneous reforestation reversals in the region (13% of municipalities) suggest that these short‐term increases in native forest cover do not necessarily translate into persistent trends. In the absence of reversals in reforestation, forests in the region could have sequestered 1.75 Pg C, over three times the actual estimated carbon sequestration (0.52 Pg C). We also showed that failure to distinguish native and planted forests would have masked native forest cover loss in the region and overestimated reforestation by 3.2 Mha and carbon sequestration from natural forest regeneration by 0.37 Pg C. Deforestation reversals were prevalent in urbanized municipalities with limited forest cover and high agricultural productivity, highlighting the importance of favorable socioeconomic conditions in promoting reforestation. Successful forest restoration efforts will require development and enforcement of environmental policies that promote forest regeneration and ensure the permanence of regrowing forests. This is crucial not only for the fate and conservation of the AF, but also for other tropical nations to achieve their restoration and carbon sequestration commitments.

Ensuring a sufficient and adequate supply of water for humans and ecosystems is a pressing environmental challenge. The expansion of agricultural and urban lands has jeopardized watershed ecosystem services and a changing climate poses additional risks for regional water supply. We used stream water quality data collected between 2000 and 2014, coupled with detailed precipitation and land cover information, to investigate the effects of landscape composition and short‐term precipitation variability on the quality of water resources in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The state is home to over 45 million people and has a long history of human landscape modification. A severe drought in 2014–2015 led to a major water crisis and highlighted the fragility of the regional water supply system. We found that human‐dominated watersheds had lower overall water quality when compared to forested watersheds, with urban cover showing the most detrimental impacts on water quality. Forest cover was associated with a better overall water quality across the studied watersheds, with forested watersheds having low turbidity and high dissolved oxygen. High precipitation led to increased turbidity and fecal coliforms levels and lower dissolved oxygen in streams but these effects depended on watershed land cover. High precipitation diluted concentrations of nitrogen and dissolved solids in highly urbanized watersheds but exacerbated turbidity in pasture‐dominated watersheds. Given the high costs of water treatment in densely populated regions, there is a pressing need to plan and manage landscapes in order to ensure adequate water resources. In tropical regions, maintaining or restoring native vegetation cover is a promising intervention to sustain adequate water quality.

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Restoration of native tropical forests is crucial for protecting biodiversity and ecosystem functions, such as carbon stock capacity. However, little is known about the contribution of early stages of forest regeneration to crop productivity through the enhancement of ecosystem services, such as crop pollination and pest control. Using data from 610 municipalities along the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (30 m spatial resolution), we evaluated if young regenerating forests (less than 20 years old) are positively associated with coffee yield and whether such a relationship depends on the amount of preserved forest in the surroundings of the coffee fields. We found that regenerating forest alone was not associated with variations in coffee yields. However, the presence of young regenerating forest (within a 500 m buffer) was positively related to higher coffee yields when the amount of preserved forest in a 2 km buffer is above a 20% threshold cover. These results further reinforce that regional coffee yields are influenced by changes in biodiversity-mediated ecosystem services, which are explained by the amount of mature forest in the surrounding of coffee fields. We argue that while regenerating fragments may contribute to increased connectivity between remnants of forest fragments and crop fields in landscapes with a minimum amount of forest (20%), older preserved forests (more than 20 years) are essential for sustaining pollinator and pest enemy’s populations. These results highlight the potential time lag of at least 20 years of regenerating forests’ in contributing to the provision of ecosystem services that affect coffee yields (e.g., pollination and pest control). We emphasize the need to implement public policies that promote ecosystem restoration and ensure the permanence of these new forests over time.

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Water quality degradation from human related activities has become a pressing global issue, putting water security at risk around the world. Land use decisions can severely degrade stream water quality, compromising water supply and increasing water treatment costs. Here we examine changes in water quality over 20 years and their association with land use, urbanization, and sewage treatment in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. We also consider how a severe drought in 2014-2015 affected water quality, uncovering the potential impacts of a changing climate on water treatment costs. We analyzed water quality data between 2000 and 2019 from 230 monitoring stations focusing on seven metrics: dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, turbidity, total dissolved solids, and fecal coliforms. We first calculated the number of times that metrics exceeded the legal thresholds and then assessed if metrics were improving or deteriorating over time. Across all stations, a large proportion of stream water samples failed to comply to the legal standards for human consumption for at least one water quality metric. This proportion was highest for total dissolved solids (30.7%) and total phosphorus (42.8%), with fewer samples exceeding the threshold for turbidity and dissolved oxygen. Deteriorating water quality trends over time were prevalent for dissolved solids (33.33%) and total nitrogen (52.45%), while dissolved oxygen exhibited the highest percentage of improving trends across watersheds (43.63%). Moreover, we observed that 4 of the 7 metrics analyzed deteriorated during the 2014-2015 drought. Urbanization and agricultural activity led to deterioration of water quality, while improvement in sewage treatment infrastructure improved water quality across watersheds. The decline in water quality observed in the region, especially during the recent drought, highlights the need to develop land use management strategies to protect water quality and reduce growing costs of water treatment in the state.