No abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 epidemics poses a particular challenge to low and middle income countries, making some of them consider the strategy of "vertical confinement". In this strategy, contact is reduced only to specific groups (like age groups) that are at increased risk of severe disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aim to assess the feasibility of this scenario as an exit strategy for the current lockdown in terms of its ability to keep the number of cases under the health care system capacity. We developed a modified SEIR model, including confinement, asymptomatic transmission, quarantine and hospitalization. The population is subdivided into 9 age groups, resulting in a system of 72 coupled nonlinear differential equations. The rate of transmission is dynamic and derived from the observed delayed fatality rate; the parameters of the epidemics are derived with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used Brazil as an example of middle income country, but the results are easily generalizable to other countries considering a similar strategy. We find that starting from 60% horizontal confinement, an exit strategy on May 1st of confinement of individuals older than 60 years old and full release of the younger population results in 400 000 hospitalizations, 50 000 ICU cases, and 120 000 deaths in the 50-60 years old age group alone. The health care system avoids collapse if the 50-60 years old are also confined, but our model assumes an idealized lockdown where the confined are perfectly insulated from contamination, so our numbers are a conservative lower bound. Our results discourage confinement by age as an exit strategy.April 15, 2020

The ongoing COVID-19 epidemics poses a particular challenge to low and middle income countries, making some of them consider the strategy of "vertical confinement". In this strategy, contact is reduced only to specific groups (e.g. age groups) that are at increased risk of severe disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aim to assess the feasibility of this scenario as an exit strategy for the current lockdown in terms of its ability to keep the number of cases under the health care system capacity. We developed a modified SEIR model, including confinement, asymptomatic transmission, quarantine and hospitalization. The population is subdivided into 9 age groups, resulting in a system of 72 coupled nonlinear differential equations. The rate of transmission is dynamic and derived from the observed delayed fatality rate; the parameters of the epidemics are derived with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used Brazil as an example of middle income country, but the results are easily generalizable to other countries considering a similar strategy. We find that starting from 60% horizontal confinement, an exit strategy on May 1st of confinement of individuals older than 60 years old and full release of the younger population results in 400 000 hospitalizations, 50 000 ICU cases, and 120 000 deaths in the 50-60 years old age group alone. Sensitivity analysis shows the 95% confidence interval brackets a order of magnitude in cases or three weeks in time. The health care system avoids collapse if the 50-60 years old are also confined, but our model assumes an idealized lockdown where the confined are perfectly insulated from contamination, so our numbers are a conservative lower bound. Our results discourage confinement by age as an exit strategy.

Fundamento: Existem grandes oportunidades de melhoria da qualidade do cuidado cardiovascular em países em desenvolvimento por meio da implementação de um programa de qualidade. Objetivo: Avaliar o efeito de um programa de Boas Práticas em Cardiologia (BPC) nos indicadores de desempenho e desfechos clínicos dos pacientes relacionados à insuficiência cardíaca, fibrilação atrial e síndromes coronarianas agudas em um subconjunto de hospitais públicos brasileiros. Métodos: O programa Boas Práticas em Cardiologia (BPC) foi adaptado do programa Get With The Guidelines (GWTG) da American Heart Association (AHA) para ser utilizado no Brasil. O programa está sendo iniciado em três domínios de cuidado simultaneamente (síndrome coronariana aguda, fibrilação atrial e insuficiência cardíaca), o que consiste em uma abordagem nunca testada no GWTG. Existem seis eixos de intervenções utilizadas pela literatura sobre tradução do conhecimento que abordará barreiras locais identificadas por meio de entrevistas estruturadas e reuniões regulares para auditoria e feedback. Planeja-se incluir no mínimo 10 hospitais e 1500 pacientes por doença cardíaca. O desfecho primário inclui as taxas de adesão às medidas de cuidado recomendadas pelas diretrizes. Desfechos secundários incluem o efeito do programa sobre o tempo de internação, mortalidade global e específica, taxas de readmissão, qualidade de vida, percepção do paciente sobre saúde e adesão dos pacientes às intervenções prescritas. Resultados: Espera-se, nos hospitais participantes, uma melhoria e a manutenção das taxas de adesão as recomendações baseadas em evidência e dos desfechos dos pacientes. Este é o primeiro programa em melhoria da qualidade a ser realizado na América do Sul, que fornecerá informações importantes de como programas de sucesso originados em países desenvolvidos como os Estados Unidos podem ser adaptados às necessidades de países com economias em desenvolvimento como o Brasil. Um programa bem sucedido dará informações valiosas para o desenvolvimento de programas de melhoria da qualidade em outros países em desenvolvimento. Conclusões: Este estudo de mundo real proverá informações para a avaliação e aumento da adesão às diretrizes de cardiologia no Brasil, bem como a melhora dos processos assistenciais. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2020; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0) Palavras-chave: Doenças Cardiovasculares/fisiopatologia; Insuficiência Cardíaca; Fibrilação Atrial; Síndrome Coronariana Aguda; Melhoria de qualidade/tendências; Guias como Assunto. Artigo Original Taniguchi et al. Programa boas práticas em cardiologia (BPC)

Background: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) stopped early for benefit often receive great attention and affect clinical practice, but pose interpretational challenges for clinicians, researchers, and policy makers. Because the decision to stop the trial may arise from catching the treatment effect at a random high, truncated RCTs (tRCTs) may overestimate the true treatment effect. The Study Of Trial Policy Of Interim Truncation (STOPIT-1), which systematically reviewed the epidemiology and reporting quality of tRCTs, found that such trials are becoming more common, but that reporting of stopping rules and decisions were often deficient. Most importantly, treatment effects were often implausibly large and inversely related to the number of the events accrued. The aim of STOPIT-2 is to determine the magnitude and determinants of possible bias introduced by stopping RCTs early for benefit.