Purpose -The purpose of this paper is to examine the informative power of rating agencies in the process of establishing sovereign risk, over a ten-year period (1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006). Design/methodology/approach -First, following an earlier model, the concept of noise-rater risk is introduced. Second, four panels were carried out to identify the most significant macro factors in determination of sovereign ratings, taking into account contemporaneous and lagged variables. The dependent variable is sovereign rating issued at the end of each year. Third, three kinds of errors committed by rating agencies when altering the sovereign ratings of emerging countries are defined. Findings -Noise-rater risk amplifies the chances of noise traders obtaining higher returns than arbitrators. The panels show that, with the exception of debt, all other factors are sample dependant, and that variables and samples leave ample space for subjective factors. Analysis of errors demonstrates that rating agencies appear to lose their focus/modus operandi/principles in times of crisis, and that they commit more errors immediately prior and after the onset of a financial crisis. Practical implications -The paper argues for a cautious analysis of rating agency's informative power. Like any other stakeholder, rating agencies are influenced by cognitive limitations, erroneous beliefs, and the cost of acquiring and using information. Originality/value -The paper uses behavioral finance methodologies to observe rating agencies and demonstrates, from its observations of sovereign ratings, that agencies tend to fail at times of financial turmoil, i.e. when they are most needed, by abandoning their "look at the future" principle.
This paper exp lores the issues and challenges to model government and the environment variables.[16] did not even conclude on fiscal activism,[20, 21, 22 and 23] did not justify an environmental agreement in their economic models,[28] talks about the unsettled problems related to natural resource. In[1], it is argued that the State is of the utmost importance for environ mental management. However, we try to include the government functions in his model to greenhouse gas emissions and found that the cause-relation began to deteriorate.[2]´s game, wh ich discusses land reform and deforestation in Brazil, turned govern ment into only a commit ment related to only a side of the land conflict. Using their game , we consider REDD's impact on Brazilian land refo rm policies. The effect of REDD on the conflict and deforestation will depend on the strength of the governance. Finally, we felt the need to observe environmental public spending. We considered the budgets from Brazil and the UK. The environ mental issues still require greater p riority, especially in Brazil. The Brazilian federal budget for the environ ment suffers fro m volatility and a lack of focus. We observed that despite centuries discussing the government functions and the importance of the environment, the modelling of these two variables still demands the inclusion of government effect iveness, institutions, human nature and uncertainties. Our general conclusion is that the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of government are not properly revealed in the economic models. We argued for a bounded rationality approach.
Which are the ways of knowing, understanding and justifying war by the Popes since the twentieth century? The Catholic Church has a long tradition to determine the need of wars, called the Christian just war founded by St. Augustine. Since the twentieth century, however, the popes have showed hesitation, contradiction and negligence towards just war approach.
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