The RSs studied demonstrated a good predictive accuracy for death or MI at 1 year and enabled the identification of high-risk subsets of patients who will benefit most from myocardial revascularization performed during initial hospital stay.

Aims Symptom-based pretest probability scores that estimate the likelihood of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in stable chest pain have moderate accuracy. We sought to develop a machine learning (ML) model, utilizing clinical factors and the coronary artery calcium score (CACS), to predict the presence of obstructive CAD on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). Methods and results The study screened 35 281 participants enrolled in the CONFIRM registry, who underwent ≥64 detector row CCTA evaluation because of either suspected or previously established CAD. A boosted ensemble algorithm (XGBoost) was used, with data split into a training set (80%) on which 10-fold cross-validation was done and a test set (20%). Performance was assessed of the (1) ML model (using 25 clinical and demographic features), (2) ML + CACS, (3) CAD consortium clinical score, (4) CAD consortium clinical score + CACS, and (5) updated Diamond-Forrester (UDF) score. The study population comprised of 13 054 patients, of whom 2380 (18.2%) had obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis). Machine learning with CACS produced the best performance [area under the curve (AUC) of 0.881] compared with ML alone (AUC of 0.773), CAD consortium clinical score (AUC of 0.734), and with CACS (AUC of 0.866) and UDF (AUC of 0.682), P < 0.05 for all comparisons. CACS, age, and gender were the highest ranking features. Conclusion A ML model incorporating clinical features in addition to CACS can accurately estimate the pretest likelihood of obstructive CAD on CCTA. In clinical practice, the utilization of such an approach could improve risk stratification and help guide downstream management.

This large international radiation dose survey demonstrates considerable reduction of radiation exposure in coronary CTA during the last decade. However, the large inter-site variability in radiation exposure underlines the need for further site-specific training and adaptation of contemporary cardiac scan protocols.

Background-Computed tomography-adapted Leaman score (CT-LeSc) was developed to quantify coronary CT angiography information about atherosclerotic burden (lesion localization, stenosis degree, and plaque composition). The objective of the study is to evaluate CT-LeSc long-term prognostic value in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods and Results-Single-center prospective registry including 1304 consecutive patients undergoing coronary CT angiography for suspected CAD. High CT-LeSc was defined by upper tertile (score, >5) cutoff. Segment involvement score and segment stenosis score were also evaluated. Hard cardiac events (cardiac death and nonfatal acute coronary syndromes) were considered for analysis. Different Cox regression models were used to identify independent event predictors. Kaplan-Meier event-free survival was evaluated in 4 patient subgroups stratified by obstructive (≥50% stenosis) versus nonobstructive CAD and a high (>5) versus a low (≤5) CT-LeSc. Of 1196 patients included in the final analysis (mean follow-up of 52±22 months), 125 patients experienced 136 hard events (18 cardiac deaths and 118 nonfatal myocardial infarction). All atherosclerotic burden scores were independent predictors of cardiac events (hazard ratios of 3.09 for segment involvement score, 4.42 for segment stenosis score, and 5.39 for CT-LeSc). Cumulative eventfree survival was 76.8% with a high CT-LeSc and 96.0% with a low CT-LeSc. Event-free survival in nonobstructive CAD with high CT-LeSc (78.6%) was similar to obstructive CAD with high CT-LeSc (76.5%) but lower than obstructive CAD with low CT-LeSc (80.7%). Conclusions-CT-LeSc Mushtaq et al Prognostic Value of CT-Leaman Scoreto demonstrate a significant association of the CT-LeSc with some traditional demographic and clinical risk factors as well as scores for pretest CAD probability and cardiovascular risk. 7The aim of this study is to validate the CT-LeSc as a long-term prognostic tool in patients undergoing CCTA for suspected CAD. Methods PopulationThe study population has been previously described. 6 Briefly, a total of 3421 consecutive patients undergoing CCTA between February 2005 and March 2008 because of suspected CAD were included in a single-center prospective registry. Patients were excluded (n=2117) because of (1) known CAD (n=1242), (2) other cardiovascular diseases (n=535), (3) contraindications to contrast agents or inability to sustain a 15-s breath hold (n=195) and (5) cardiac arrhythmias compromising image quality (n=145). Thus, a total of 1304 patients were prospectively enrolled in this study. Figure 1 describes patient selection and study design.The institution's scientific and ethical committees approved the study, and all patients gave written informed consent. A structured interview was conducted and clinical history acquired, evaluating chest pain, medical therapy and the following cardiac risk factors: diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, positive family history of CAD, and current smoking, and these were ...

IMPORTANCE Plaque morphologic measures on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) have been associated with future acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, the evolution of calcified coronary plaques by noninvasive imaging is not known.OBJECTIVE To ascertain whether the increasing density in calcified coronary plaque is associated with risk for ACS. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSThis multicenter case-control cohort study included individuals enrolled in ICONIC (Incident Coronary Syndromes Identified by Computed Tomography), a nested case-control study of patients drawn from the CONFIRM (Coronary CT Angiography Evaluation for Clinical Outcomes: An International Multicenter) registry, which included 13 study sites in 8 countries. Patients who experienced core laboratory-verified ACS after baseline CCTA (n = 189) and control individuals who did not experience ACS after baseline CCTA (n = 189) were included. Patients and controls were matched 1:1 by propensity scores for age; male sex; presence of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes; family history of premature coronary artery disease (CAD); current smoking status; and CAD severity. Data were analyzed from November 2018 to March 2019.EXPOSURES Whole-heart atherosclerotic plaque volume was quantitated from all coronary vessels and their branches. For patients who underwent invasive angiography at the time of ACS, culprit lesions were coregistered to baseline CCTA lesions by a blinded independent reader. Low-density plaque was defined as having less than 130 Hounsfield units (HU); calcified plaque, as having more than 350 HU and subcategorized on a voxel-level basis into 3 strata: 351 to 700 HU, 701 to 1000 HU, and more than 1000 HU (termed 1K plaque). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Association between calcium density and future ACS risk.RESULTS A total of 189 patients and 189 matched controls (mean [SD] age of 59.9 [9.8] years; 247 [65.3%] were male) were included in the analysis and were monitored during a mean (SD) follow-up period of 3.9 (2.5) years. The overall mean (SD) calcified plaque volume (>350 HU) was similar between patients and controls (76.4 [101.6] mm 3 vs 99.0 [156.1] mm 3 ; P = .32), but patients who experienced ACS exhibited less 1K plaque (>1000 HU) compared with controls (3.9 [8.3] mm 3 vs 9.4 [23.2] mm 3 ; P = .02). Individuals within the highest quartile of 1K plaque exhibited less low-density plaque, as a percentage of total plaque, when compared with patients within the lower 3 quartiles (12.6% [10.4%] vs 24.9% [20.6%]; P < .001). For 93 culprit precursor lesions detected by CCTA, the volume of 1K plaque was lower compared with the maximally stenotic lesion in controls (2.6 [7.2] mm 3 vs 7.6 [20.3] mm 3 ; P = .01). The per-patient and per-lesion results were similar between the 2 groups when restricted to myocardial infarction cases. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEResults of this study suggest that, on a per-patient and per-lesion basis, 1K plaque was associated with a lower risk for future ACS and that measurement of 1K plaque may impro...

To describe a coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-adapted Leaman score (CT-LeSc) as a tool to quantify total coronary atherosclerotic burden with information regarding localization, type of plaque and degree of stenosis and to identify clinical predictors of a high coronary atherosclerotic burden as assessed by the CT-LeSc. Single center prospective registry including a total of 772 consecutive patients undergoing CCTA (Dual-source CT) from April 2011 to March 2012. For the purpose of this study, 581 stable patients referred for suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) without previous myocardial infarction or revascularization procedures were included. Pre-test CAD probability was determined using both the Diamond-Forrester extended CAD consortium method (DF-CAD consortium model) and the Morise score. Cardiovascular risk was assessed with the HeartScore. The cut-off for the 3rd tercile (CT-LeSc ≥8.3) was used to define a population with a high coronary atherosclerotic burden. The median CT-LeSc in this population (n = 581, 8,136 coronary segments evaluated; mean age 57.6 ± 11.1; 55.8 % males; 14.6 % with diabetes) was 2.2 (IQR 0-6.8). In patients with CAD (n = 341), the median CT-LeSc was 5.8 (IQR 3.2-9.6). Among patients with nonobstructive CAD, most were classified in the lowest terciles (T1, 43.0 %; T2, 36.1 %), but 20.9 % were in the highest tercile (T3). The majority of the patients with obstructive CAD were classified in T3 (78.2 %), but 21.8 % had a CT-LeSc in lower terciles (T1 or T2). The independent predictors of a high CT-LeSc were: Male sex (OR 1.73; 95 % CI 1.04-2.90) diabetes (OR 2.91; 95 % CI 1.61-5.23), hypertension (OR 2.54; 95 % CI 1.40-4.63), Morise score ≥ 16 (OR 1.97; 95 % CI 1.06-3.67) and HeartScore ≥ 5 (OR 2.42; 95 % CI 1.41-4.14). We described a cardiac CT adapted Leaman score as a tool to quantify total (obstructive and nonobstructive) coronary atherosclerotic burden, reflecting the comprehensive information about localization, degree of stenosis and type of plaque provided by CCTA. Male sex, hypertension, diabetes, a HeartScore ≥5 % and a Morise score ≥ 16 were associated with a high coronary atherosclerotic burden, as assessed by the CT-LeSc. About one fifth of the patients with nonobstructive CAD had a CT-LeSc in the highest tercile, and this could potentially lead to a reclassification of the risk profile of this subset of patients identified by CCTA, once the prognostic value of the CT-LeSc is validated.

IMPORTANCEThe density of atherosclerotic plaque forms the basis for categorizing calcified and noncalcified morphology of plaques.OBJECTIVE To assess whether alterations in plaque across a range of density measurements provide a more detailed understanding of atherosclerotic disease progression. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSThis cohort study enrolled 857 patients who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography 2 or more years apart and had quantitative measurements of coronary plaques throughout the entire coronary artery tree. The study was conducted from 2013 to 2016 at 13 sites in 7 countries. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESThe main outcome was progression of plaque composition of individual coronary plaques. Six plaque composition types were defined on a voxel-level basis according to the plaque attenuation (expressed in Hounsfield units [HU]): low attenuation (−30 to 75 HU), fibro-fatty (76-130 HU), fibrous (131-350 HU), low-density calcium (351-700 HU), high-density calcium (701-1000 HU), and 1K (>1000 HU). The progression rates of these 6 compositional plaque types were evaluated according to the interaction between statin use and baseline plaque volume, adjusted for risk factors and time interval between scans. Plaque progression was also examined based on baseline calcium density. Analysis was performed among lesions matched at baseline and follow-up. Data analyses were conducted from August 2019 through March 2020.RESULTS In total, 2458 coronary lesions in 857 patients (mean [SD] age, 62.1 [8.7] years; 540 [63.0%] men; 548 [63.9%] received statin therapy) were included. Untreated coronary lesions increased in volume over time for all 6 compositional types. Statin therapy was associated with volume decreases in low-attenuation plaque (β, −0.02; 95% CI, −0.03 to −0.01; P = .001) and fibro-fatty plaque (β, −0.03; 95% CI, −0.04 to −0.02; P < .001) and greater progression of high-density calcium plaque (β, 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03; P < .001) and 1K plaque (β, 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03; P < .001). When analyses were restricted to lesions without low-attenuation plaque or fibro-fatty plaque at baseline, statin therapy was not associated with a change in overall calcified plaque volume (β, −0.03; 95% CI, −0.08 to 0.02; P = .24) but was associated with a transformation toward more dense calcium. Interaction analysis between baseline plaque volume and calcium density showed that more dense coronary calcium was associated with less plaque progression. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEThe results suggest an association of statin use with greater rates of transformation of coronary atherosclerosis toward high-density calcium. A pattern of slower overall plaque progression was observed with increasing density. All findings support the concept of reduced atherosclerotic risk with increased densification of calcium.

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