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The peri-urban interface (PUI) exhibits characteristic qualities of both urban and rural regions, and this complexity has meant that risk assessments and long-term planning for PUI are lagging, despite these areas representing new developing settlement frontiers. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by modifying an existing approach to quantify and assess flood risk. The risk triangle framework was used to map exposure, vulnerability and biophysical variables; however, in a novel application, the risk triangle framework was adapted by presuming that there is a variation in the degree of exposure, vulnerability and biophysical variables. Within Australia and globally, PUIs are often coastal, and flood risk associated with rainfall and coastal inundation poses considerable risk to communities in the PUI; these risks will be further exacerbated should projections of increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events and accelerating sea-level rise eventuate. An indicator-based approach using the risk triangle framework that maps flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability was used to integrate the biophysical and socio-economic flooding risk for communities in PUI of the St Georges Basin and Sussex Inlet catchments of south-eastern Australia. Integrating the flood risk triangle with future scenarios of demographic and climate change, and considering factors that contribute to PUI flood risk, facilitated the identification of planning strategies that would reduce the future rate of increase in flood risk. These planning strategies are useful for natural resource managers and land use planners across Australia and globally, who are tasked with balancing socio-economic prosperity for a changing population, whilst maintaining and enhancing ecosystem services and values. The indicator-based approach used in this study provides a cost-effective first-pass risk assessment and is a valuable tool for decision makers planning for flood risk across PUIs in NSW and globally.

Human agency is seen as a critical component of adaptive capacity concerning environmental change. This capacity may entail social actor's ability to learn from past experience, and create opportunities in the present for dealing with uncertainty and change in the future. However, it also means that actors need to be able to overturn structural barriers that impede anticipatory adaptation to climate change such as lack of political leadership, power imbalances, acceptance of climate risks and willingness to act. While scholarship around questions of structural barriers is common in environmental studies literature, there is less understanding about how future thinking could help to strengthen human agency. Harnessing the temporal and projective attributes of human agency by which social actors can exert influence over the future and create solutions may comprise a promising way forward. This paper investigates how social actors understand past social and environmental change and explores how scenario planning may help actors apply their understanding of changes over time to devise policies for climate change adaptation. The paper applies this exploratory lens to an Australian coastal local government area engaged in scenario planning and adaptation pathways planning. Findings indicate that the temporality aspect of agency applied to solving complex issues and overcoming structural barriers manifests differently from an individual to a collective perspective. This means that while scenario planning and adaptation pathways planning helps with anticipatory identification and experimentation, this may not be sufficient to overturn structural barriers to adaptation in the short-term.

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