In this paper, we derive a micro model of employment demand with hysteresis whereby firms can adjust along an intensive (employment) and an extensive (hours of work) margin. A mechanism of aggregation over heterogeneous firms is used to generate the corresponding aggregate dynamics. Longitudinal micro monthly data on a representative sample of Portuguese manufacturing firms are used in the empirical analysis. Our results indicate that signs of hysteresis found at the micro level do not vanish completely by aggregation and that hysteresis is magnified by the existence of an additional margin of adjustment (the hours adjustment margin).
The main purposes of this paper are twofold: a) to determine if there are significant differences on the determinants of public expenditures and tax revenues between the so-called PIGS and the remaining Eurozone member states; b) to uncover possible explanations for the different situations in which these countries find themselves nowadays. The paper focus on the effects of the cyclical state of the economy on those fiscal variables, and on the actual adherence to the fiscal rules imposed by the Maastricht Treaty. Based on the estimated results we conclude that the anti-cyclical reaction with respect to the unemployment rate is much stronger among non-PIGS. We also find that fiscal rules have, in general, not been followed by those two groups of countries. Moreover, PIGS, in spite of their economic frailties, have tried to emulate the fiscal behavior of their more prosperous Eurozone partners instead of executing more rigorous policies
The CIM Series in Mathematical Sciences is published on behalf of and in collaboration with the Centro Internacional de Matemática (CIM) in Coimbra, Portugal. Proceedings, lecture course material from summer schools and research monographs will be included in the new series. 37-02, 37-06, 91-01, 91-02 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.Printed on acid-free paper Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) mpaulo@fep.up.pt ForewordI was very honored to be invited by Professor Alberto Adrego Pinto to the lecture at the Advanced School Planet Earth, Dynamics, Games and Science II (DGS II) from August 28 to August 30, 2013, and to speak at the associated international conference from September 2 to September 4, 2013. I have known Alberto since I was a graduate student at the CUNY Graduate Center in the 1980s. After both of us completed our Ph.D. degrees, we worked on a similar subject: smooth rigidity for one-dimensional dynamical systems and its generalization to Anosov dynamical systems of the two-torus, for many years. I was impressed by his work with his collaborators, using techniques and methods in smooth dynamical systems to develop many excellent results on smooth rigidity. Meanwhile, my collaborators and I tried to develop smooth rigidity into symmetric rigidity by applying techniques and methods in quasiconformal mappings theory and Teichmüller theory, and to build up a new Teichmüller theory for dynamical systems. So I knew that attending the DGS II would be stimulating and rewarding. Also, I knew that Alberto is an outstanding organizer and has the talent to lead a successful advanced school and conference, and indeed, his organizational skills and talents were proven again. I had a wonderful time in Lisbon, Portugal, and enjoyed many fruitful discussions with Alberto and his ...
This study provides new evidence on the effects of nonconvex employment adjustment costs at the aggregate level. Using the Preisach model of hysteresis, we find that hysteresis commonly found at the firm level due to nonconvex adjustment costs do not completely vanish at the macro level. Hysteresis signs are particularly present in small firms and less so in large ones. The consequence is that the equilibrium state of employment, instead of being unique, becomes path dependent, that is, determined by the history of previous adjustments. The key implication is that macroeconomic policies designed to stimulate the economy may have long-run effects.
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