Summary Background An estimated 2·5 billion people are at risk of dengue. Incidence of dengue is especially high in resource-constrained countries, where control relies mainly on insecticides targeted at larval or adult mosquitoes. We did epidemiological and economic assessments of different vector control strategies. Methods We developed a dynamic model of dengue transmission that assesses the evolution of insecticide resistance and immunity in the human population, thus allowing for long-term evolutionary and immunological effects of decreased dengue transmission. We measured the dengue health burden in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost. We did a cost-effectiveness analysis of 43 insecticide-based vector control strategies, including strategies targeted at adult and larval stages, at varying efficacies (high-efficacy [90% mortality], medium-efficacy [60% mortality], and low-efficacy [30% mortality]) and yearly application frequencies (one to six applications). To assess the effect of parameter uncertainty on the results, we did a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and a threshold analysis. Findings All interventions caused the emergence of insecticide resistance, which, with the loss of herd immunity, will increase the magnitude of future dengue epidemics. In our model, one or more applications of high-efficacy larval control reduced dengue burden for up to 2 years, whereas three or more applications of adult vector control reduced dengue burden for up to 4 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the strategies for two high-efficacy adult vector control applications per year was US$615 per DALY saved and for six high-efficacy adult vector control applications per year was $1267 per DALY saved. Sensitivity analysis showed that if the cost of adult control was more than 8·2 times the cost of larval control then all strategies based on adult control became dominated. Interpretation Six high-efficacy adult vector control applications per year has a cost-effectiveness ratio that will probably meet WHO's standard for a cost-effective or very cost-effective intervention. Year-round larval control can be counterproductive, exacerbating epidemics in later years because of evolution of insecticide resistance and loss of herd immunity. We suggest the reassessment of vector control policies that are based on larval control only. Funding The Fulbright Programme, CAPES (Brazilian federal agency for post-graduate education), the Miriam Burnett trust, and the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation.

IntroductionNew challenges have arisen for the management of critically ill HIV/AIDS patients. Severe sepsis has emerged as a common cause of intensive care unit (ICU) admission for those living with HIV/AIDS. Contrastingly, HIV/AIDS patients have been systematically excluded from sepsis studies, limiting the understanding of the impact of sepsis in this population. We prospectively followed up critically ill HIV/AIDS patients to evaluate the main risk factors for hospital mortality and the impact of severe sepsis on the short- and long-term survival.MethodsAll consecutive HIV-infected patients admitted to the ICU of an infectious diseases research center, from June 2006 to May 2008, were included. Severity of illness, time since AIDS diagnosis, CD4 cell count, antiretroviral treatment, incidence of severe sepsis, and organ dysfunctions were registered. The 28-day, hospital, and 6-month outcomes were obtained for all patients. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis measured the effect of potential factors on 28-day and 6-month mortality.ResultsDuring the 2-year study period, 88 HIV/AIDS critically ill patients were admitted to the ICU. Seventy percent of patients had opportunist infections, median CD4 count was 75 cells/mm3, and 45% were receiving antiretroviral therapy. Location on a ward before ICU admission, cardiovascular and respiratory dysfunctions on the first day after admission, and the presence of severe sepsis/septic shock were associated with reduced 28-day and 6-month survival on a univariate analysis. After a multivariate analysis, severe sepsis determined the highest hazard ratio (HR) for 28-day (adjusted HR, 3.13; 95% CI, 1.21-8.07) and 6-month (adjusted HR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.42-7.86) mortality. Severe sepsis occurred in 44 (50%) patients, mainly because of lower respiratory tract infections. The survival of septic and nonseptic patients was significantly different at 28-day and 6-month follow-up times (log-rank and Peto test, P < 0.001).ConclusionsSevere sepsis has emerged as a major cause of admission and mortality for hospitalized HIV/AIDS patients, significantly affecting short- and longer-term survival of critically ill HIV/AIDS patients.

Obesity following ART initiation is frequent among HIV-infected adults. Key risk factors include female sex, HIV disease severity and INSTI use. Further research regarding the association between INSTIs and the development of obesity is needed.

The accuracy of commercially available tests for COVID-19 in Brazil remains unclear. We aimed to perform a meta-analysis to describe the accuracy of available tests to detect COVID-19 in Brazil. We searched at the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (ANVISA) online platform to describe the pooled sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and summary receiver operating characteristic curves (SROC) for detection of IgM/IgG antibodies and for tests using naso/oropharyngeal swabs in the random-effects models. We identified 16 tests registered, mostly rapid-tests. Pooled diagnostic accuracy measures [95%CI] were: (i) for IgM antibodies Se=82% [76-87]; Sp=97% [96-98]; DOR=168 [92-305] and SROC=0.98 [0.96-0.99]; (ii) for IgG antibodies Se=97% [90-99]; Sp=98% [97-99]; DOR=1994 [385-10334] and SROC=0.99 [0.98-1.00]; and (iii) for detection of SARS-CoV-2 by antigen or

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IntroductionWe describe temporal trends in the mortality rates and factors associated with AIDS and non-AIDS related mortality at the Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute (IPEC), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ).MethodsAdult patients enrolling from 1986 through 2009 with a minimum follow up of 60 days were included. Vital status was exhaustively checked using patients’ medical charts, through active contact with individuals and family members and by linkage with the Rio de Janeiro Mortality database using a previously validated algorithm. The CoDe protocol was used to establish the cause of death. Extended Cox proportional hazards models were used for multivariate modeling.ResultsA total of 3530 individuals met the inclusion criteria, out of which 868 (24.6%) deceased; median follow up per patient was 3.9 years (interquartile range 1.7–9.2 years). The dramatic decrease in the overall mortality rates was driven by AIDS-related causes that decreased from 9.19 deaths/100PYs n 1986–1991 to 1.35/100PYs in 2007–2009. Non-AIDS related mortality rates remained stable overtime, at around 1 death/100PYs. Immunodeficiency significantly increased the hazard of both AIDS-related and non-AIDS-related causes of death, while HAART use was strongly associated with a lower hazard of death from either cause.ConclusionsOur results confirm the remarkable decrease in AIDS-related mortality as the HIV epidemic evolved and alerts to the conditions not traditionally related to HIV/AIDS which are now becoming more frequent, needing careful monitoring.

We use the Box-Jenkins approach to fit an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to dengue incidence in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1997 to 2004. We find that the number of dengue cases in a month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two, and twelve months prior. We use our fitted model to predict dengue incidence for the year 2005 when two alternative approaches are used: 12-steps ahead versus 1-step ahead. Our calculations show that the 1-step ahead approach for predicting dengue incidence provides significantly more accurate predictions (P value=0.002, Wilcoxon signed-ranks test) than the 12-steps ahead approach. We also explore the predictive power of alternative ARIMA models incorporating climate variables as external regressors. Our findings indicate that ARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence in Rio de Janeiro. Furthermore, these models can be applied to surveillance data for predicting trends in dengue incidence.

Background The burden of HIV in transgender women (transwomen) in Brazil remains unknown. We aimed to estimate HIV prevalence among transwomen, and identify the factors associated with newly diagnosed HIV infections. Methods “Transcender” was a respondent driven sampling study of transwomen in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, conducted from August 2015 to January 2016. Twelve seeds were recruited from social movements and formative phase. Eligibility criteria were: self-identification as transwomen, being 18 years of age or older, living in Rio de Janeiro or metropolitan area, and having a valid peer recruitment coupon. Participants were categorized as HIV-negative, known HIV infected, or newly diagnosed as HIV infected. Predictors of newly diagnosed HIV infections were assessed by comparing the newly diagnosed with the HIV-negative. Population estimates were adjusted using the RDSII estimator. Findings In total, 345 eligible transwomen were enrolled. The study sample was young and diverse on gender identity. Population estimates of no prior HIV testing, HIV-infection and newly diagnosed as HIV-infected were 29·1%, 32·1% and 7·0%, respectively (based on n=60 with no prior testing, n=141 HIV-infected, n=40 newly diagnosed). Syphilis, rectal chlamydia and gonorrhea infection were diagnosed in 28·9%, 14·6%, and 13·5%, respectively. Newly diagnosed HIV infections were associated with black race (22·8; 95%CI 2·9–178·9), travesti (34·1; 95%CI 5·8–200·2) or transsexual woman (41·3; 95%CI 6·3–271·2) gender identity, history of sex work (30·7; 95%CI 3·5–267·3), and history of sniffing cocaine (4·4; 95%CI 1·4–14·1). Interpretation Our results suggest that transwomen bear the largest burden of HIV among any population at risk in Brazil. The high proportion of HIV diagnosis among young participants points to the need for tailored long-term health care and prevention services in order to curb the HIV epidemic and improve the quality-of-life of transwomen in Brazil. Funding This work was supported by Brazilian Research Council (470056/2014-2) and NIAID-NIH (UM1AI069496).