The tight span, or injective envelope, is an elegant and useful construction that takes a metric space and returns the smallest hyperconvex space into which it can be embedded. The concept has stimulated a large body of theory and has applications to metric classification and data visualisation. Here we introduce a generalisation of metrics, called diversities, and demonstrate that the rich theory associated to metric tight spans and hyperconvexity extends to a seemingly richer theory of diversity tight spans and hyperconvexity.

We study the long-time behaviour of large systems of ordinary differential equations with random data. Our main focus is a Hamiltonian system which describes a distinguished particle attached to a large collection of heat bath particles by springs. In the limit where the size of the heat bath tends to infinity, the trajectory of the distinguished particle can be weakly approximated, on finite time intervals, by a Langevin stochastic differential equation. We examine the long-term behaviour of these trajectories, both analytically and numerically. We find ergodic behaviour manifest in both the long-time empirical measures and in the resulting auto-correlation functions.

COVID-19 is a global pandemic with over 25 million cases worldwide. Currently, treatments are limited, and there is no approved vaccine. Interventions such as handwashing, masks, social distancing, and “social bubbles” are used to limit community transmission, but it is challenging to choose the best interventions for a given activity. Here, we provide a quantitative framework to determine which interventions are likely to have the most impact in which settings. We introduce the concept of “event R,” the expected number of new infections due to the presence of a single infectious individual at an event. We obtain a fundamental relationship between event R and four parameters: transmission intensity, duration of exposure, the proximity of individuals, and the degree of mixing. We use reports of small outbreaks to establish event R and transmission intensity in a range of settings. We identify principles that guide whether physical distancing, masks and other barriers to transmission, or social bubbles will be most effective. We outline how this information can be obtained and used to reopen economies with principled measures to reduce COVID-19 transmission.

Consider a particle diffusing in a confined volume which is divided into two equal regions. In one region, the diffusion coefficient is twice the value of the diffusion coefficient in the other region. Will the particle spend equal proportions of time in the two regions in the long term? Statistical mechanics would suggest yes, since the number of accessible states in each region is presumably the same. However, another line of reasoning suggests that the particle should spend less time in the region with faster diffusion, since it will exit that region more quickly. We demonstrate with a simple microscopic model system that both predictions are consistent with the information given. Thus, specifying the diffusion rate as a function of position is not enough to characterize the behaviour of a system, even assuming the absence of external forces. We propose an alternative framework for modelling diffusive dynamics in which both the diffusion rate and equilibrium probability density for the position of the particle are specified by the modeller. We introduce a numerical method for simulating dynamics in our framework that samples from the equilibrium probability density exactly and is suitable for discontinuous diffusion coefficients.

We propose a continuous model for evolutionary rate variation across sites and over the tree and derive exact transition probabilities under this model. Changes in rate are modelled using the CIR process, a diffusion widely used in financial applications. The model directly extends the standard gamma distributed rates across site model, with one additional parameter governing changes in rate down the tree. The parameters of the model can be estimated directly from two well-known statistics: the index of dispersion and the gamma shape parameter of the rates across sites model. The CIR model can be readily incorporated into probabilistic models for sequence evolution. We provide here an exact formula for the likelihood of a three taxa tree. Larger trees can be evaluated using Monte-Carlo methods.