Knowledge of the behaviour of ship operators relating to their investment in retrofitted equipment or systems is of fundamental importance to those engaged in designing and developing products. Evaluation of product offerings is often undertaken on the basis of return on investment over its full life but this may not be convincing to buyers for existing ships who may only expect to own the ship to which the equipment is fitted for a limited period, not its full life. Knowledge of the typical period of ship ownership then becomes important to enable a realistic payback period to be taken into account in the evaluation of developments. While many involved in shipping will give an anecdotal opinion of the typical length of ship ownership, there is an absence of research to give any precision to such anecdotal opinions or even to confirm them. This article uses secondary sources to present a retrospective analysis of the average period of ship ownership for that portion of the fleet that was approaching the end of its economic life at the time the study was undertaken. The results question the widely held view of speculation being the prime motivator in ship sale and purchase. The pattern of behaviour of owners is found to vary significantly between the first and subsequent owners, with the first owner keeping the vessel for considerably longer than subsequent owners and with the influence of speculation increasing as the owner number increases. Rational values are proposed for what constituted short term and long term in relation to ownership periods for the vessels reviewed, and further analysis is recommended to investigate how these values may vary as the market changes.
Commercial shipbuilding in the 21st century is dominated by large suppliers, constructing series' of ships in highly efficient shipyards. The industry would be unrecognizable to shipbuilders from a century ago and this raises the question as to when the modern form developed. Much development has been incremental but there have also been seminal triggers, both technical and economic, that have led to major shifts in the nature of the industry. This paper traces these shifts from the building of SS Great Britain to the current day. The modern industry saw its beginnings in the United States in World War II (wwii), follows a build strategy that was developed in Japan (under U.S. guidance) and a pattern of shipyard design that originated in Europe in the early 1960s. The most significant influences have included developments in iron and steel manufacturing processes, the expansion of the British Empire in the second half of the 19th century, the Liberty Ship program in WWII, Japan's "great reverse" post-WWII, and the "Bretton Woods" conference that initiated the process of globalization in the second half of the 20th century. The greatest steps forward have arisen out of economic imperatives and been assisted by influence from other industry sectors. The most important influences were those from government contractors in the introduction of welding into shipbuilding in WWII and in the influence of the aircraft manufacturing industry in Japanese shipbuilding post-WWII. The greatest barriers to innovation have arisen from conservatism. 1. Introduction In an article in the New York Times of October 28,1921, Henry Ford coined his famous phrase: "History is bunk." He was paraphrasing an earlier article in the Crawfordsville Review of June 6, 1916, where he had said: "History is more or less bunk" and the three additional words make all the difference in understanding this famous quotation. What Henry Ford did not mean was that we cannot learn the lessons of history. What he did mean was that we cannot reliably predict the future by extrapolating the past and this leads to a very optimistic view of the power of innovation in industry. What innovations might be around the corner that will change everything? Henry Ford is also often quoted in support of this view as saying, relating to the period before his innovations that made the motor car an affordable mode of transport for the masses in the United States: "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses." In reality, Henry Ford is nowhere recorded as actually having said this, but it is a popular misquotation because it illustrates the principle perfectly (Vlaskovits 2011).
In 2014 the Panama Canal Authority is scheduled to bring into commission new locks that will eliminate the long standing Panamax beam constraint of 32.2m. The expansion of the canal is aimed at increased capacity for container transits but will clearly have consequences for all types of vessel. There is an emerging demand for dry bulk carriers that are larger than the current Panamax limit of around 85,000 dwt but smaller than the Capesize class of around 160,000 dwt and the expansion of the canal will facilitate this development. Larger vessels will permit economies of scale and greater efficiency in the dry bulk shipping sector compared to what is currently possible with conventional Panamax ships. The relaxation of the constraint will additionally permit the development of more efficient hull forms than is possible within the existing beam constraint and the expansion of the Panama Canal’s locks will therefore (eventually) contribute directly to the reduction of CO2 produced by dry bulk shipping. The use of the Panamax constraint is far wider than the dry bulk sector, however, and the potential for reduction in carbon emissions for other sectors currently constrained to 32.2m beam is recommended for further study to evaluate the total carbon reduction ‘windfall’ that could result from the expansion of the Canal.
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