Background and aims: Retail alcohol outlets appear to open in neighborhoods with low land and structure rents near sources of demand; they may 'agglomerate', open near to one another or 'churn', replace one another, over time. We used the turnover in numbers of outlets over time to measure agglomeration and churning and the impacts of openings and closings of outlets on neighborhood crime.

Background Alcohol use can lead to child abuse and neglect even if the person using alcohol does not use heavily. Yet relatively few measures that reflect alcohol use are available at smaller geographic units. We assess whether the estimated level of total alcohol use per capita is related to measures of child abuse and neglect that include substantiated reports of maltreatment, total entries into foster care, and alcohol‐related entries into foster care. Methods Our sample consists of 326 Census block groups in Sacramento, California over three time points (978 space–time units). Administrative data for substantiations of child abuse and neglect and foster care entries are our outcomes. We create market potentials for alcohol use among 18‐ to 29‐year‐olds as our primary independent variable. Data are analyzed using Bayesian conditionally autoregressive spatio‐temporal models. Results Higher alcohol use potentials (as measured by total volume per capita of 18‐ to 29‐year olds) are related to more children entering foster care due to drinking‐related concerns by a parent or caregiver (RR = 1.032, 95% CI = [1.013, 1.051]), but not total substantiations for foster care entries. Neighborhoods with higher total volume of alcohol per 18‐ to 29‐year‐olds had more foster care entries when we used number of substantiations as the denominator (RR = 1.012, 95% CI = [1.0001, 1.023]) but were not related to foster care entries with alcohol misuse as a concern as a subset of all foster care entries. Conclusions Higher estimated volume of alcohol use per capita among young adults (aged 18 to 29) was related to more children entering foster care due to alcohol‐related concerns. Reducing alcohol supply in alcohol outlets, specifically through off‐premise establishments, might reduce rates for all entries into foster care or other out‐of‐home placement and substantiated child abuse and neglect.

Background and aims Both local socio‐economic conditions and prescription opioid supply are associated with drug overdose deaths, which exhibit substantial geographical heterogeneity across the United States. We measured whether the associations of prescription opioid supply with drug overdose deaths vary by local socio‐economic conditions. Design Ecological county‐level study, including 3109 US counties between 2006 and 2019 (n = 43 526 county‐years) using annual mortality data. Setting United States. Cases A total of 711 447 drug overdose deaths. Measurements We modeled overdose counts using Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models, estimating associations between four types of drug overdose deaths (deaths involving any drugs, any opioid, prescription opioids only and heroin), prescription opioid supply and five socio‐economic indicators: unemployment, poverty rate, income inequality, Rey index (components include mean household income, % high school graduates, % blue‐collar workers and unemployment rate), and American human development index (HDI; an indicator of community wellbeing). Findings Drug overdose deaths and all substance‐specific overdose deaths were higher in counties with higher income inequality [adjusted odds ratios (aORs) = 1.09–1.13], Rey index (aORs = 1.15–1.21) and prescription opioid supply (aORs = 1.14–1.21), and lower in counties with higher HDI scores (aORs = 0.75–0.92). Poverty rate, income inequality and HDI scores were found to modify the effect of prescription opioid supply on heroin overdose deaths. The plot of the interactions showed that when disadvantage is high, increasing prescription opioid supply does not increase heroin overdose deaths. The less disadvantage there is, indicated by lower poverty rates, higher HDI scores and lower income inequality, the greater the effect of increasing prescription opioid supply relative to population size on heroin overdose deaths in US counties. Conclusions In the United States, prescription opioid supply is associated with higher drug overdose deaths; associations are stronger in counties with less disadvantage and less income inequality, but only for heroin overdose deaths.

Aims This paper examines trends and correlates of alcohol‐involved motor vehicle crashes (AMVCs) in California between 2005 and 2016 among Hispanic and non‐Hispanic Whites (Whites hereafter). Together these two groups comprise 76% of the state population. The paper also examines whether alcohol outlet density, percentage of Hispanics in census tract populations, and distance to the U.S./Mexico border are related to greater risks for AMVCs. The border is of interest given the greater availability of alcohol in the area. Methods Crash data come from Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System maintained by the California Highway Patrol. Sociodemographic and community characteristics data from the U.S. Census and alcohol outlet density were aggregated to census tracts. Total motor vehicle crashes and AMVCs were related to these characteristics using hierarchical Bayesian Poisson space–time models. Results There were over two million injury and fatality crashes during the period of analysis, of which 11% were AMVCs. About 1.7% of these crashes had fatalities. The rate of AMVCs increased among both Whites and Hispanics until 2008. After 2008, the rate among Whites declined through 2016 while the rate among Hispanics declined for 2 years (2009 and 2010) and increased thereafter. Crash distance from the border (RR = 1.016, 95% CI = 1.010 to 1.022) and percent Hispanic population (RR = 1.006; 95% CI = 1.003 to 1.009) were well‐supported results with 95% credible intervals that did not include 1. The percentages of the following: bars/pubs, males, individuals aged 18 to 29 and 40 to 49 years, U.S. born population, individuals below the 150% poverty level, unemployed, housing vacant, and housing owner‐occupied were all positively associated with AMVCs and well supported. Conclusions Between 2005 and 2016 the rate of AMVCs in California declined among Whites but not among Hispanics. Population‐level indicators of percent Hispanic population, distance to the U.S. Mexico border, gender, age distribution, and socioeconomic stability were positively associated with crash rates, indicating that important contextual characteristics help determine the level of AMVC rates in communities.

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Introduction: Causal relationships between alcohol outlets and crime are inferred from their statistical associations across neighbourhoods. However, many unobserved covariates may confound these effects. Recognising that outlet sales vary by time of day and day of week, we assess whether areas with more bars/pubs, restaurants or offpremise outlets have more crime during days and times when alcohol sales are greatest.Methods: Annual administrative crime counts, sociodemographic data and other area characteristics of 336 Census block groups in Oakland, California, USA, were related to outlet densities from 2000 to 2015. Bayesian space-time Poisson models were used to measure associations between outlet densities and crime during: (i) weekday daytime; (ii) weekday nighttime; (iii) weekend daytime; and (iv) weekend nighttime periods (four seemingly unrelated equations). Comparisons of parameter estimates across equations provided an assessment of outlet effects on crime across days and times within the same analysis units using the same constellation of confounding covariates.Results: Assault and driving under the influence crime incidents during weekend evening hours were more frequent in Census block group areas with greater numbers of bar/pubs. Burglaries were consistently greater in areas with greater densities of restaurants. Discussion and Conclusions: The spatiotemporal signature relating densities of bars/pubs over weekend evening hours to assault and driving under the influence incidents suggests that these outlets are a critical source of these crimes across neighbourhoods. Prevention programs and policies that focus upon specific drinking establishments, days and times may be most effective in reducing assault and impaired driving incidents in neighbourhoods. K E Y W O R D S alcohol outlet, alcoholic beverage, crime, policy Key Points • Crimes ostensibly related to alcohol outlets vary by neighbourhood location, time-of-day and day-of-week.

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