Significance Society faces the multifaceted crossroads dilemma of sustainably balancing today’s livelihood with future resource needs. Currently, agriculture is tapping the High Plains Aquifer beyond natural replenishment rates to grow irrigated crops and livestock that augment global food stocks, and science-based information is needed to guide choices. We present new methods to project trends in groundwater pumping and irrigated corn and cattle production. Although production declines are inevitable, scenario analysis substantiates the impacts of increasing near-term water savings, which would extend the usable lifetime of the aquifer, increase net production, and generate a less dramatic production decline.

We absolutely and unequivocally refute the criticisms of Steward et al. (1) by Butler et al. (2) from the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS), which are based on several apparent misconceptions that are straightforward to address.