Markovian bridge deterioration models have been in use in the United States since the early 1990s, using the AASHTO Guide to Commonly-Recognized Structural Elements. California has one of the oldest databases of inspection history using this standard. A preliminary analysis was performed on the California data set, to quantify the deterioration transition probabilities actually observed, and to determine whether it is yet possible to validate the key assumptions of Markovian bridge deterioration models. Several important conclusions were reached, which should provide guidance for future research and implementation.
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