Since 1999, the post-Communist states have seen a series of attempts to overthrow semiauthoritarian governments, with the successful attempts known as the “colored revolutions.” However, not all such attempts have succeeded. This paper seeks to explain the variation in outcomes. Most accounts have focused on the development of grass-roots activist movements. The central argument here is that elites, and in particular security services, play a much more significant role in these revolutions than has generally been appreciated. This hypothesis is elaborated through a threshold model of protest, in which the central question is whether protests achieve a “tipping point” that makes them continue to grow larger until success is inevitable. The actions of elites, it is argued, play a decisive role in whether mass protests reach a tipping point. The argument is examined through a paired comparison of two failed attempts to overthrow governments through street protests (Serbia 1996e1997 and Ukraine 2001) with two successful cases (Serbia 1999 and Ukraine 2004). By studying cases with variation on the dependent variable, this paper seeks to improve the empirical and methodological basis of research on post-communist revolutions.
The 2010 Ukrainian presidential election points to a certain consistency in Ukrainian electoral politics, especially in regional dynamics. These enduring constraints limit the options of political leaders and channel outcomes into a narrower range than would be expected from a focus on the personal preferences of leaders or the political views of the forces they represent. This article seeks to identify these constraints and the prospects that the current government or a future one might escape them. Starting with the common assumption that all leaders (even in democracies) seek to retain office as long as possible, the article examines what has made consolidation of power more difficult in Ukraine than other post-Soviet societies. Important factors include regional divisions, the absence of a natural-resource-based economy, and the relative weakness of the post-communist security services. It then considers factors that favor the consolidation of political power and the erosion of meaningful competition, such as weak institutions, weak norms, and increasing facility with the methods used elsewhere in the region to weaken competitors. The article concludes by proposing that both authoritarian consolidation and democratic consolidation present challenges in Ukraine and that we need to focus more on the barriers to the concentration of power in new democracies.
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