We estimated changes in viticulture conditions over the 21st century in BadenWürttemberg, southwest Germany, using scenario runs of 3 regional climate models for 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The scenario runs were compared and validated with local observational data. By applying the Huglin Index, possible expansions of areas suitable for viticulture, as well as suitable grape varieties for the region, were determined. Optimal grape varieties are changing to those more suitable to a warmer climate. This development was found in all examined simulation runs. KEY WORDS: Viticulture · Southwest Germany · Huglin Index · REMO · CLM · WETTREG Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 47: 161-169, 2011 162 by Stock (2005) using primarily a statistical regional climate model (SRCM) STAR. The scenarios used cover the time period up to 2055, and the main method applied was the Huglin Index (HI, Huglin 1978). The HI is a commonly used heat summation index to identify suitable areas for different grape varieties, and has been applied in studies of Tonietto & Carbonneau (2004) as well as Petgen (2007).In the present study, we examined the possible expansion of suitable areas for different grape varieties, using the HI, for 3 different periods, 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Simulation runs of 2 dynamical regional climate models (DRCMs) were used, the regional model REMO, developed by the Max-PlanckInstitute for Meteorology (Jacob & Podzun 1997, Jacob et al. 2007, and the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model in climate limited-area Modelling (CLM) mode (COSMO-CLM or CCLM) (Steppeler et al. 2003. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 were used for the simulation runs (IPCC 2007). Both emission scenarios are based on the assumption of an integrated world with rapid economic growth. B1 includes reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resourceefficient technologies, together with a change to a more service and information orientated economy. A1B comprises the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies together with a balanced use of all energy sources, but is less focused on environmental sustainability than B1. For 2 different climate stations, the model output is validated and compared with simulations of the statistical based regional climate model WETTREG of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (Enke et al. 2006, Spekat et al. 2007). The present study assesses potential changes and examines the possible expansion of those areas suitable for viticulture over a long time scale (up to 2100) according to the 2 DRCMs. In addition, we discuss possible limits of the models used and of the HI. DATA AND METHODSData from 3 models, 2 dynamical and one statistical, were used to validate the results and were coupled with observation data for verification purposes. To determine values for a particular point, an inverse distance weighted interpolation was applied using the surrounding dynamic...
The Heliothermal Index (HI) is one of the most common methods used to identify suitable areas for viticulture, using sums of air temperatures and latitude of locations. For this study, the HI and a modified version of it was applied to estimate annual wine characteristics in the federal state of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany. For this process, measurement data of 11 climate stations from 1960 to 2010 were used. In order to develop a method, 40 years of observation were selected and split into 30 years for developing an estimation method and 10 years for validation. The HI was modified by varying the time periods with which the index was calculated. Time periods with little effect on wine characteristics were identified and excluded to improve the estimation. The must density could be estimated with a bias of about 1 °Oe absolute value, which equals 0.21 °Brix, a mean average error (MAE) of about 4 °Oe / 0.82 °Brix and a root mean square error (RMSE) of about 5 °Oe / 1.03 ° Brix. The titratable acidity could be estimated with a bias of about 0.1 g/L absolute value, a MAE of about 0.7 g/L and a RMSE of about 0.9 g/L.
This research presents estimations for the development of must density and titratable acidity of wine produced during the 21st century in the federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg in southwestern Germany. The estimations were based on 30 yr long records of climate data and vintages which were then used to initialize a statistical model. The results of the statistical model were used to estimate the must density and titratable acidity of future vintages based on data from climate simulation runs from 2 regional climate models: the regional climate model REMO with A1B and A2 emission scenarios and the climate version of the local model (CLM) with the A1B emission scenario. The estimation was made for the 30 yr periods 2011−2040, 2041−2070 and 2071−2100. An increase of must density and a decrease in titratable acidity for the viticultural districts of Baden and Wuerttemberg as well as for the Bodensee area were detected. The increase in must density from one 30 yr period to the next ranged from 4 to 7° Oechsle, and the decrease in titratable acidity ranged from 0.5 to 2 g l −1 . Changes of these magnitudes likely will endanger the quality of established brands without appropriate grower and winemaker adaptations. The results of this study provide a detailed description of possible forthcoming climate-driven impacts on must density and titratable acidity values which can assist viticulturalists in planning adaptations to those changes.
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