Previous studies have concluded that thoroughbred racehorse speed is improving very slowly, if at all, despite heritable variation for performance and putatively intensive selective breeding. This has led to the suggestion that racehorses have reached a selection limit. However, previous studies have been limited, focusing only on the winning times of a few elite races run over middle and long distances, and failing to account for potentially confounding factors. Using a much larger dataset covering the full range of race distances and accounting for variation in factors such as ground softness, we show that improvement is, in fact, ongoing for the population as a whole, but driven largely by increasing speed in sprint races. In contrast, speed over middle and long distances, at least at the elite level, appears to be reaching an asymptote. Whether this reflects a selection limit to speed over middle and long distances or a shift in breeding practices to target sprint performances remains to be determined.
Several studies over recent decades have reported a lack of contemporary improvement in thoroughbred racehorse speed, despite apparent additive genetic variance and putatively strong selection. More recently, it has been shown that some phenotypic improvement is ongoing, but rates are low in general and particularly so over longer distances. Here we used pedigree-based analysis of 692,534 records from 76,960 animals to determine whether these phenotypic trends are underpinned by genetic selection responses, and to evaluate the potential for more rapid improvement. We show that thoroughbred speed in Great Britain is only weakly heritable across sprint (h2 = 0.124), middle-distance (h2 = 0.122) and long-distance races (h2 = 0.074), but that mean predicted breeding values are nonetheless increasing across cohorts born between 1995 and 2012 (and racing from 1997 to 2014). For all three race distance categories, estimated rates of genetic improvement are statistically significant and also greater than can be explained by drift. Taken together our results show genetic improvement for thoroughbred speed is ongoing but slow, likely due to a combination of long generation times and low heritabilities. Additionally, estimates of realised selection intensities raises the possibility that the contemporary selection emerging from the collective actions of horse breeders is weaker than previously assumed, particularly over long distances. We suggest that unmodelled common environment effects may have upwardly biased estimates of heritability, and thus expected selection response, previously.
Effects of parental age on offspring viability have been reported in a wide range of species. However, to what extent parental age influences offspring traits beyond viability remains unclear. Moreover, previous research has primarily focused on maternal age effects. The purpose of this study was to test for paternal and maternal age effects on offspring speed in thoroughbred racehorses. We analysed over 900 000 race performances by over 100 000 horses on British racecourses between 1996 and 2019. With knowledge of the age of all 41 107 dams and 2 887 sires at offspring conception, we jointly modelled maternal and paternal age effects using a ‘within-individual centring’ approach. Within-parents, we identified a significant effect of maternal age on offspring speed of −0.017 yards s −1 yr −1 and a corresponding paternal age effect of −0.011 yards s −1 yr −1 . Although maternal age effects were stronger (more negative), the existence and magnitude of paternal effects is particularly noteworthy, given thoroughbred sires have no involvement in parental care. Our results also suggest that the selective disappearance of both sires and dams is ongoing. These findings could potentially be used to optimize thoroughbred racehorse breeding decisions, and more generally, add to the increasing body of evidence that both maternal and paternal age affect a range of offspring characteristics.
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