medRxiv preprint Predictions on the time-evolution of the number of severe and critical cases of COVID-19 patients in Guadeloupe are presented. A stochastic model is purposely developed to explicitly account for the entire population ( 400000 inhabitants) of Guadeloupe. The available data for Guadeloupe are analysed and combined with general characteristics of the COVID-19 to constrain the parameters of the model. The time-evolution of the number of cases follows the well-known exponential-like model observed at the very beginning of a pandemic outbreak. The exponential growth of the number of infected individuals is controlled by the so-called basic reproductive number, R 0 , defined as the likely number of additional cases generated by a single infectious case during its infectious period T I . Because of the rather long duration of infectious period ( 14 days) a high rate of contamination is sustained during several weeks after the beginning of the containment period. This may constitute a source of discouragement for people restrained to respect strict containment rules. It is then unlikely that, during the containment period, R 0 falls to zero. Fortunately, our models shows that the containment effects are not much sensitive to the exact value of R 0 provided we have R 0 < 0.6. For such conditions, we show that the number of severe and critical cases is highly tempered about 4 to 6 weeks after the beginning of the containment. Also, the maximum number of critical cases (i.e. the cases that may exceed the hospital's intensive care capacity) remains near 30 when R 0 < 0.6. For a larger R 0 = 0.8 a slower decrease of the number of critical cases occurs, leading to a larger number of deceased patients. This last example illustrates the great importance to maintain an as low as possible R 0 during and after the containment period. The rather long delay between the beginning of the containment and the appearance of the slowing-down of the rate of contamination puts a particular strength on the communication and sanitary education of people. To be mostly efficient, this communication must be done by a locally recognised medical staff. We believe that this point is a crucial matter of success. COVID-19 | Time-evolution | Guadeloupe | SAMU | Critical care | Monte Carlo ModelCorrespondence: meriem.allali@chu-guadeloupe.fr A. Description of the model structure. The stochastic model used in the present study falls in the class of exact stochastic Monte Carlo models (2). In such models, the entire population exposed to an infection is represented by a network where each node represents a person. This type of models offers very large possibilities to design epidemic processes that agree with the medical knowledge of the virus dissemination and its possible pathological issues. A set of stochastic rules determines the evolution of each node at each time iteration. The infection simulation process begins by choosing a given number of nodes initialised as "infected" to put the pathogen in the network. Other initial condition...

ObjectiveDescribe short-term health effects of the Hurricane using the syndromic surveillance system based on emergency departments, general practitioners and dispensaries in Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy islands from September 11, 2017 to October 29, 2017.IntroductionIn Saint-Martin (31 949 inhabitants) and Saint-Barthélemy (9 625 inhabitants) islands in the French West Indies, the surveillance system is based on several data sources: (1) a syndromic surveillance system based on two emergency departments (ED) of Saint-Barthélemy (HL de Bruyn) and Saint-Martin (CH Fleming) and on mortality (SurSaUD® network [1])); (2) a network of sentinel general practitioners (GP’s) based on the voluntary participation of 10 GPs in Saint-Martin and 5 in Saint-Barthélemy; (3) the notifiable diseases surveillance system (31 notifiable diseases to individual case-specific form); (4) the regional surveillance systems of leptospirosis and arboviruses based on the biological cases reported by physicians and laboratories of two islands.On September 6, 2017, Hurricane Irma struck Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy islands. Both islands were massively destroyed. This storm led to major material damages, such as power outages, disturbance of drinking water systems, road closures, destruction of medical structures and evacuation or relocation of residents.In this context, the usual monitoring system did not work and life conditions were difficult. The regional unit of French National Public Health Agency set up an epidemiological surveillance by sending epidemiologists in the field in order to collect data directly from ED physicians, GP’s and in dispensaries. Those data allowed to describe short-term health effects and to detect potential disease outbreaks in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma. This paper presents results of the specific syndromic surveillance.MethodsBefore Irma, ED data were collected daily directly from patients’ computerized medical files that were filled in during medical consultations at ED. Among the collected variables, the diagnosis was categorized according to the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). This surveillance system was completed by aggregated data of Emergency Medical Services (EMS), also including medical diagnosis coded using the ICD10.Because of the sudden disruption in hospital departments due to hurricane, electronic transmission was stopped. To replace it, ED data collection turned temporary into paper-forms and several epidemiologists were sent in Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy to collect data directly from the ED physicians. This system remained until the end of October when connections and data transmission were restored.Because of destruction of medical structures, dispensaries were opened in different strategic areas of the island, 3 in Saint-Martin and none in Saint-Barthélemy. General practitioners have progressively reopened their practice (8 GP’s in Saint-Martin and 5 in Saint-Barthélemy) and patient's data were collected and integrated into the surveillance system.Based on a literature review and former experience, the main pathologies identified for the health risk assessment were: (1) somatic pathologies directly or indirectly related to the hurricane (trauma, wounds, cuts, burns, secondary infection); (2) infectious diseases related to the lack of hygiene partly due to damaged water and electricity networks and unavailable health care structures (gastroenteritis, food infections, respiratory diseases, skin infections, tetanus and other pathologies that may occur in the longer term linked to the incubation period especially leptospirosis and hepatitis A); (3) chronic pathologies by discontinuity of care (renal insufficiency, diabetic, cardio-respiratory decompensation, etc.); (4) pathologies related to animal bites and mosquito bites (vector-borne diseases); (5) psychological and / or psychiatry disorders.Then in the French West Indies, from September 11 to October 29,2017, data were routinely analyzed to detect and follow-up various expected or unusual variations of one or more pathology of the above list.ResultsThe following week after Irma (2017-37), the weekly number of ED visits compared to the mean activity observed in normal situation has increased: 1225 ED visits vs. 313 in 2017-35 in Saint-Martin and 227 ED visits vs. 94 ED visits in 2017-35 in Saint-Barthélemy. ED activity has gradually decreased to finally return to a based-activity as observed before the hurricane at the end of October.From September 11 to October 29, 25% of recorded emergency consultations in Saint-Martin island were trauma, wounds, burns and cuts. As in Saint-Martin, 42% of emergency visits in Saint-Barthélemy were pathologies directly or indirectly related to the passage of Irma (trauma, wounds, etc). Others major causes of ED visits were for treatment renewal (diabetes, renal insufficiency, etc.) and gyneco-obstetric activity because general practitioners had stopped their activity.In dispensaries and general practitioners, the most common pathology was gastroenteritis (11% in Saint-Martin) over the entire period of surveillance. At the beginning of the surveillance, skin infections were the most frequently found (20%) in Saint-Martin and psychological disorders (3%) in Saint-Bartélemy, while at the end respiratory infections were the most frequent (6%) in both islands.No increase in visits for chronic diseases, food-borne diseases, acute respiratory or diarrhea illness were detected. No autochthonous confirmed cases of cholera, leptospirosis, vector-bone disease, hepatitis A or typhoid fever had been reported, due to the destruction of the laboratory.ConclusionsSyndromic surveillance in the French West Indies allowed the epidemiologists to assess rapidly the health impact of hurricane in Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy.The well-established relations between French National Public Health Agency and local professionals of both affected islands allowed to temporary switch from an electronic into a paper-based data transmission without any interruption of data analysis.Although several cluster suspicions have been investigated (especially of gastroenteritis, scabies, etc), no massive outbreak was detected. Then even with a degraded system, syndromic surveillance allowed to reinsure authority of the absence of major health impact due to Irma.References1-Caserio- Schönemann C, Bousquet V, Fouillet A, Henry V. Le système de surveillance syndromique SurSaUD ®. Bull Epidemiol Hebd 2014 ;3-4 :38-44.

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Bacterial resistance in community-acquired urinary tract infections (UTIs) is increasing worldwide. Our study aimed to assess the microbiological epidemiology and antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of community-acquired urine bacterial isolates in French Amazonia. Our study is retrospective. It was conducted from January 2015 to December 2019 in the microbiology laboratory of the Cayenne General Hospital (French Guiana). It includes all positive urine samples from adult (> 18 years) outpatients (N = 2,533). Isolated microorganisms were Gram-negative rods in 83.9%, mainly Enterobacterales (98.4%). The main isolated bacteria were Escherichia coli (58.7%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (13.3%). Among the isolated E. coli, 37.2% were susceptible to amoxicillin, 77.9% to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, 94.9% to cefotaxime, 78.9% to ofloxacin, and 98.9% to nitrofurantoin. In 106 cases (5.1%), isolated Enterobacterales were extended-spectrum β-lactamase producers (5% of E. coli and 8.9% of K. pneumoniae). Overall, high levels of cross- and co-resistance were registered. The main isolated Gram-positive bacteria was Staphylococcus saprophyticus (28.9%). It was resistant to oxacillin in 52.5% of cases and susceptible to nitrofurantoin in 99.1% of cases. Patients with S. saprophyticus were young women in almost all cases. In conclusion, the most isolated microorganisms from outpatient urinalyses were E. coli and K. pneumoniae. They showed a high resistance rate to amoxicillin, but they were susceptible to the most remaining antibiotics. S. saprophyticus was isolated mainly in young women and was resistant to oxacillin in half of the cases. Interestingly, nitrofurantoin was active against most isolated organisms and can be considered as empirical treatment in uncomplicated UTIs.

Ciguatera poisoning (CP) is one of the most common causes worldwide of marine poisoning associated with fish consumption from tropical areas. Its incidence is underreported. CP cases seem to increase with grouped cases reported during summer. Exposure to ciguatoxins, toxins responsible for CP with sodium-channel agonistic, voltage-gated potassium channel blocking, cholinergic, and adrenergic activities, may result in a large spectrum of manifestations. We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics, management, and outcome of CP in Martinique, French West Indies. We conducted an observational retrospective single-center study during six years (October 2012 to September 2018) including all CP patients managed by the prehospital medical services, admitted to the university hospital emergency department, or declared to the regional health agency. A total of 149 CP patients (81 females/63 males; median age, 46 years (interquartile range, 34–61)) were included. Acute features consisted in general (91%; mainly, myalgia pruritus, and asthenia), gastrointestinal (90%; mainly diarrhea, abdominal pain, and nausea), neurological (72%; mainly, paresthesia, dysgeusia, and impairment of hot/cold feeling), and cardiovascular manifestations (22%; bradycardia, hypotension, and heart conduction disorders). Management was supportive. No patient died but symptoms persisted in 40% of the 77 patients with follow-up at day 15. CP was mainly attributed to the ingestion of trevallies (59%), snappers (13%), and king mackerels (8%) with collective contaminations (71%). Unusual fish (tuna, salmon, and spider conchs) were suspected in rare cases. Ingestion of trevallies was associated with significantly higher persistent symptoms (odds ratio, 3.00; 95% confidence interval, (1.20–8.00); p = 0.03). CP incidence was 0.67 cases per 10,000 patient-years in Martinique over the study period. To conclude, CP represents an increasing public health issue in Martinique, as is the case in other Caribbean islands. Patients present usual but possibly life-threatening features. Outcome is excellent despite frequently prolonged manifestations.