Robust quantitative estimates of land use and land cover change are necessary to develop policy solutions and interventions aimed towards sustainable land management. Here, we evaluated the combination of Landsat and L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to estimate land use/cover change in the dynamic tropical landscape of Tanintharyi, southern Myanmar. We classified Landsat and L-band SAR data, specifically Japan Earth Resources Satellite (JERS-1) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (ALOS-2/PALSAR-2), using Random Forests classifier to map and quantify land use/cover change transitions between 1995 and 2015 in the Tanintharyi Region. We compared the classification accuracies of single versus combined sensor data, and assessed contributions of optical and radar layers to classification accuracy. Combined Landsat and L-band SAR data produced the best overall classification accuracies (92.96% to 93.83%), outperforming individual sensor data (91.20% to 91.93% for Landsat-only; 56.01% to 71.43% for SAR-only). Radar layers, particularly SAR-derived textures, were influential predictors for land cover classification, together with optical layers. Landscape change was extensive (16,490 km 2 ; 39% of total area), as well as total forest conversion into agricultural plantations (3214 km 2). Gross forest loss (5133 km 2) in 1995 was largely from conversion to shrubs/orchards and tree (oil palm, rubber) plantations, and gross gains in oil palm (5471 km 2) and rubber (4025 km 2) plantations by 2015 were mainly from conversion of shrubs/orchards and forests. Analysis of combined Landsat and L-band SAR data provides an improved understanding of the associated drivers of agricultural plantation expansion and the dynamics of land use/cover change in tropical forest landscapes.

Large prehistoric rockslides tend to occur within spatio-temporal clusters suggesting a common trigger such as earthquake shaking or enhanced wet periods. Yet, trigger assessment remains equivocal due to the lack of conclusive observational evidence. Here, we use high-resolution lacustrine paleoseismology to evaluate the relation between past seismicity and a spatio-temporal cluster of large prehistoric rockslides in the Eastern Alps. Temporal and spatial coincidence of paleoseismic evidence with multiple rockslides at ~4.1 and ~3.0 ka BP reveals that severe earthquakes (local magnitude ML 5.5–6.5; epicentral intensity I0 VIII¼–X¾) have triggered these rockslides. A series of preceding severe earthquakes is likely to have progressively weakened these rock slopes towards critical state. These findings elucidate the role of seismicity in preparing and triggering large prehistoric rockslides in the European Alps, where rockslides and earthquakes typically occur in clusters. Such integration of multiple datasets in other formerly glaciated regions with low to moderate seismicity will improve our understanding of catastrophic rockslide drivers.

Abstract:We investigated the use of multi-spectral Landsat OLI imagery for delineating mangrove, lowland evergreen, upland evergreen and mixed deciduous forest types in Myanmar's Tanintharyi Region and estimated the extent of degraded forest for each unique forest type. We mapped a total of 16 natural and human land use classes using both a Random Forest algorithm and a multivariate Gaussian model while considering scenarios with all natural forest classes grouped into a single intact or degraded category. Overall, classification accuracy increased for the multivariate Gaussian model with the partitioning of intact and degraded forest into separate forest cover classes but slightly decreased based on the Random Forest classifier. Natural forest cover was estimated to be 80.7% of total area in Tanintharyi. The most prevalent forest types are upland evergreen forest (42.3% of area) and lowland evergreen forest (21.6%). However, while just 27.1% of upland evergreen forest was classified as degraded (on the basis of canopy cover <80%), 66.0% of mangrove forest and 47.5% of the region's biologically-rich lowland evergreen forest were classified as degraded. This information on the current status of Tanintharyi's unique forest ecosystems and patterns of human land use is critical to effective conservation strategies and land-use planning.

Myanmar’s recent transition from military rule towards a more democratic government has largely ended decades of political and economic isolation. Although Myanmar remains heavily forested, increased development in recent years has been accompanied by exceptionally high rates of forest loss. In this study, we document the rapid progression of deforestation in and around the proposed Lenya National Park, which includes some of the largest remaining areas of lowland evergreen rainforest in mainland Southeast Asia. The globally unique forests in this area are rich in biodiversity and remain a critical stronghold for many threatened and endangered species, including large charismatic fauna such as tiger and Asian elephant. We also conducted a rapid assessment survey of the herpetofauna of the proposed national park, which resulted in the discovery of two new species of bent-toed geckos, genus Cyrtodactylus. We describe these new species, C. lenya sp. nov. and C. payarhtanensis sp. nov., which were found in association with karst (i.e., limestone) rock formations within mature lowland wet evergreen forest. The two species were discovered less than 35 km apart and are each known from only a single locality. Because of the isolated nature of the karst formations in the proposed Lenya National Park, these geckos likely have geographical ranges restricted to the proposed protected area and are threatened by approaching deforestation. Although lowland evergreen rainforest has vanished from most of continental Southeast Asia, Myanmar can still take decisive action to preserve one of the most biodiverse places on Earth.

The Eastern European Alps are characterized by slow active deformation with low- to moderate seismicity. Recurrence rates of severe earthquakes exceed the time span of historical documentation. Therefore, historical and instrumental earthquake records might be insufficient for seismic hazard assessment and high-quality paleoseismic data is required. However, primary geological observations of postglacial fault activity are scarcely found, because major faults are buried below thick sedimentary sequences in glacially overdeepened valleys. Moreover, high erosion rates, gravitational slope processes and penetrative anthropogenic landscape modification often obscure geomorphic features related to surface ruptures. Here we present one of the rare paleoseismic data sets showing both on-fault evidence as subaqueous surface ruptures and off-fault evidence as multiple coeval mass-transport deposits (MTDs) and megaturbidites within a single high-resolution seismic-stratigraphic framework of the inner-alpine lake Achensee. Co-occurrence of on-fault and off-fault paleoseismic evidence on three stratigraphic levels indicates seismic activity with inferred moment magnitudes MW ∼6–6.5 of the local, lake-crossing Sulzgraben-Eben thrust at ∼8.3 ka BP and twice in Late Glacial times. Additional eight stratigraphic levels with only off-fault paleoseismic evidence document severe seismic shaking related to the historical MW ∼5.7 earthquake in Hall (CE 1670) and seven Holocene earthquakes, which have exceeded a local seismic intensity of ∼VI (EMS-98) at Achensee. Furthermore, we discuss natural and methodological influencing factors and potential pitfalls for the elaboration of a subaqueous paleoseismic record based on surface ruptures and multiple, coeval MTDs.

The increased demand for palm oil has led to an expansion of oil palm concessions in the tropics, and the clearing of abundant forest as a result. However, concessions are typically incompletely planted to varying degrees, leaving much land unused. The remaining forests within such concessions are at high risk of deforestation, as there are normally no legal hurdles to their clearance, therefore making them excellent targets for conservation. We investigated the location of oil palm plantations and the other major crop – rubber plantations in southern Myanmar, and compared them to concession boundaries. Our results show that rubber plantations cover much larger areas than oil palm in the region, indicating that rubber is the region’s preferred crop. Furthermore, only 15% of the total concession area is currently planted with oil palm (49,000 ha), while 25,000 ha is planted outside concession boundaries. While this may in part be due to uncertain and/or changing boundaries, this leaves most of the concession area available for other land uses, including forest conservation and communities’ livelihood needs. Reconsidering the remaining concession areas can also significantly reduce future emission risks from the region.

Abstract. The frequency of debris flows is hypothesized to have increased in recent decades with enhanced rainstorm activity. Geological evidence to test the relationship between climate and debris flow activity for prehistoric times is scarce due to incomplete sediment records, complex stratigraphy, and insufficient age control, especially in Alpine environments. In lacustrine archives, the link between onshore debris flow processes and the sedimentary record in lakes is poorly investigated. We present an amphibious characterization of alluvial fan deltas and a continuous 4000-year debris flow record from Plansee (Tyrol, Austria), combining light detection and ranging (lidar) data, swath bathymetry, and sediment core analyses. The geomorphic investigation of two fan deltas in different developmental stages revealed an evolutionary pattern of backfilling and new channel formation onshore, together with active subaqueous progradation on a juvenile fan delta, major onshore sediment deposition, and only few, but larger, subaqueous deposits on a mature fan delta. Geomorphic evidence for stacked and braided debris flow lobes, subaquatic landslide deposits, and different types of turbidites in sediment cores facilitated a process-based event identification, i.e. distinguishing between debris-flow-induced or earthquake-induced turbidites throughout the 4000-year sedimentary record. We directly correlate subaqueous lobe-shaped deposits with high backscatter signals to terrestrial debris flow activity of the last century. Moreover, turbidite thickness distribution along a transect of four cores allows us to pinpoint numerous events as being related to debris flow activity on a juvenile fan delta. In the sediment core, debris-flow-induced turbidites feature a more gradual fining upward grain size trend and higher TOC (total organic carbon) and δ13C values compared to earthquake-induced turbidites. The 4000-year event record contains 138 debris-flow-induced turbidites separated into four phases of similar debris flow activity (df phases). df phase 1 (∼2120 to ∼2040 before the common era – BCE) reflects the second-highest observed event frequencies and is interpreted as being a postseismic landscape response. After a long period of long recurrence intervals without any outstanding increases in debris flow activity during df phase 2 (∼2040 BCE to ∼1520 common era – CE), there are slightly increased event frequencies in df phase 3 (∼1520 to ∼1920 CE). df phase 4 (∼1920 to 2018 CE) exhibits a drastic increase in debris flow activity, followed by the overall highest debris flow frequency of the whole record, which is about 7 times higher than during df phase 3. We show that the frequency increase in the debris-flow-induced turbidite record matches a previously postulated increase in debris flow events derived from aerial photography at Plansee in the last century. The triggering of debris flows is more controlled by short, intense precipitation than any other mass movement process, and we demonstrate that lacustrine debris flow records provide a unique inventory of hazard-relevant rainstorm frequencies over decades, centuries, and millennia. The presented increase in debris flow frequency since the start of the 20th century coincides with a twofold enhanced rainstorm activity in the Northern European Alps and, therefore, provides a novel technique for the systematic understanding of non-stationary debris flow frequencies in a changing climate.

Abstract. In slowly deforming intraplate tectonic regions such as the Alps only limited knowledge exists on the occurrence of severe earthquakes, their maximum possible magnitude, and their potential source areas. This is mainly due to long earthquake recurrence rates exceeding the time span of instrumental earthquake records and historical documentation. Lacustrine paleoseismology aims at retrieving long-term continuous records of seismic shaking. A paleoseismic record from a single lake provides information on events for which seismic shaking exceeded the intensity threshold at the lake site. In addition, when positive and negative evidence for seismic shaking from multiple sites can be gathered for a certain time period, minimum magnitudes and source locations can be estimated for paleo-earthquakes by a reverse application of an empirical intensity prediction equation in a geospatial analysis. Here, we present potential magnitudes and source locations of four paleo-earthquakes in the western Austrian Alps based on the integration of available and updated lake paleoseismic data, which comprise multiple mass-transport deposits on reflection seismic profiles and turbidites and soft-sediment deformation structures in sediment cores. The paleoseismic records at Plansee and Achensee covering the last ∼10 kyr were extended towards the age of lake initiation after deglaciation to obtain the longest possible paleoseismic catalogue at each lake site. Our results show that 25 severe earthquakes are recorded in the four lakes Plansee, Piburgersee, Achensee, and potentially Starnbergersee over the last ∼16 kyr, from which four earthquakes are interpreted to have left imprints in two or more lakes. Earthquake recurrence intervals range from ca. 1000 to 2000 years, with a weakly periodic to aperiodic recurrence behavior for the individual records. We interpret that relatively shorter recurrence intervals in the more orogen-internal archives Piburgersee and Achensee are related to enhanced tectonic loading, whereas a longer recurrence rate in the more orogen-external archive Plansee might reflect a decreased stress transfer across the current-day enhanced seismicity zone. Plausible epicenters of paleo-earthquake scenarios coincide with the current enhanced seismicity regions. Prehistoric earthquakes with a minimum moment magnitude (Mw) 5.8–6.1 have occurred around the Inn valley, the Brenner region, and the Fernpass–Loisach region and might have reached up to Mw 6.3 at Achensee. The paleo-earthquake catalogue might hint at a shift in severe earthquake activity near the Inn valley from east to west to east during postglacial times. ShakeMaps highlight that such severe earthquake scenarios do not solely impact the enhanced seismicity region of Tyrol but widely affect adjacent regions like southern Bavaria in Germany.