Resilience in hospitals - their ability to withstand, adapt to, and rapidly recover from disruptive events - is vital to their role as part of national critical infrastructure. This paper presents a model to provide planning guidance to decision makers about how to make hospitals more resilient against possible disruption scenarios. This model represents a hospital's adaptive capacities that are leveraged to care for patients during loss of infrastructure services (power, water, etc.). The model is an optimization that reallocates and substitutes resources to keep patients in a high care state or allocates resources to allow evacuation if necessary. An illustrative example demonstrates how the model might be used in practice.
As social distancing policies and recommendations went into effect in response to COVID-19, people made rapid changes to the places they visit. These changes are clearly seen in mobility data, which records foot traffic using location trackers in cell phones. While mobility data is often used to extract the number of customers that visit a particular business or business type, it is the frequency and duration of concurrent occupancy at those sites that governs transmission. Understanding the way people interact at different locations can help target policies and inform contact tracing and prevention strategies. This paper outlines methods to extract interactions from mobility data and build networks that can be used in epidemiological models. Several measures of interaction are extracted: interactions between people, the cumulative interactions for a single person, and cumulative interactions that occur at particular businesses. Network metrics are computed to identify structural trends which show clear changes based on the timing of stay-at-home orders. Measures of interaction and structural trends in the resulting networks can be used to better understand potential spreading events, the percent of interactions that can be classified as close contacts, and the impact of policy choices to control transmission.
Syndromic surveillance detects and monitors individual and population health indicators through sources such as emergency department records. Automated classification of these records can improve outbreak detection speed and diagnosis accuracy. Current syndromic systems rely on hand-coded keyword-based methods to parse written fields and may benefit from the use of modern supervised-learning classifier models. In this paper we implement two recurrent neural network models based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) cells and compare them to two traditional bag-of-words classifiers: multinomial naïve Bayes (MNB) and a support vector machine (SVM). The MNB classifier is one of only two machine learning algorithms currently being used for syndromic surveillance. All four models are trained to predict diagnostic code groups as defined by Clinical Classification Software, first to predict from discharge diagnosis, then from chief complaint fields. The classifiers are trained on 3.6 million de-identified emergency department records from a single United States jurisdiction. We compare performance of these models primarily using the F1 score. We measure absolute model performance to determine which conditions are the most amenable to surveillance based on chief complaint alone. Using discharge diagnoses The LSTM classifier performs best, though all models exhibit an F1 score above 96.00. The GRU performs best on chief complaints (F1=47.38), and MNB with bigrams performs worst (F1=39.40). Certain syndrome types are easier to detect than others. For examples, chief complaints using the GRU model predicts alcohol-related disorders well (F1=78.91) but predicts influenza poorly (F1=14.80). In all instances the RNN models outperformed the bag-of-word classifiers suggesting deep learning models could substantially improve the automatic classification of unstructured text for syndromic surveillance.
ObjectiveTo obtain feedback and seek future directions for an ISDS initiative to establish and update research questions in Informatics, Analytics, Communications, and Systems Research with the greatest perceived impact for improving surveillance practice. IntroductionOver the past fifteen years, syndromic surveillance (SyS) has evolved from a set of ad hoc methods used mostly in post-disaster settings, then expanded with broad support and development because of bioterrorism concerns, and subsequently evolved to a mature technology that runs continuously to detect and monitor a wide range of health issues. Continued enhancements needed to meet the challenges of novel health threats with increasingly complex information sources will require technical advances focused on day-to-day public health needs.Since its formation in 2005, the International Society for Disease Surveillance (ISDS) has sought to clarify and coordinate global priorities in surveillance research. As part of a practitioner-driven initiative to identify current research priorities in SyS, ISDS polled its members about capabilities needed by SyS practitioners that could be improved as a result of research efforts. A taskforce of the ISDS Research Committee, consisting of national and global subject matter experts (SMEs) in SyS and ISDS professional staff, carried out the project. This panel will discuss the results and the preferred means to determine and communicate priorities in the future.
Reference: D.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Morgantown Energy Technology Center (ME'rc)) Contract No. DE-AC21-84MC21181 '/_((-f I PERSONNEL During the reporting period, the following staff personnel were involved in the contract'sexecution:Dr. Jan Krason (PrincipalInvestigator); Mr. Marek Ciesnik (Geologist); Mr. Patrick Finley (Geochemist-Geologist); and Ms. Margaret Krason (TeclmiealAssistant-Graphic Artist).
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