Genomic selection can increase genetic gain per generation through early selection. Genomic selection is expected to be particularly valuable for traits that are costly to phenotype and expressed late in the life cycle of long-lived species. Alternative approaches to genomic selection prediction models may perform differently for traits with distinct genetic properties. Here the performance of four different original methods of genomic selection that differ with respect to assumptions regarding distribution of marker effects, including (i) ridge regression–best linear unbiased prediction (RR–BLUP), (ii) Bayes A, (iii) Bayes Cπ, and (iv) Bayesian LASSO are presented. In addition, a modified RR–BLUP (RR–BLUP B) that utilizes a selected subset of markers was evaluated. The accuracy of these methods was compared across 17 traits with distinct heritabilities and genetic architectures, including growth, development, and disease-resistance properties, measured in a Pinus taeda (loblolly pine) training population of 951 individuals genotyped with 4853 SNPs. The predictive ability of the methods was evaluated using a 10-fold, cross-validation approach, and differed only marginally for most method/trait combinations. Interestingly, for fusiform rust disease-resistance traits, Bayes Cπ, Bayes A, and RR–BLUB B had higher predictive ability than RR–BLUP and Bayesian LASSO. Fusiform rust is controlled by few genes of large effect. A limitation of RR–BLUP is the assumption of equal contribution of all markers to the observed variation. However, RR-BLUP B performed equally well as the Bayesian approaches.The genotypic and phenotypic data used in this study are publically available for comparative analysis of genomic selection prediction models.

The application of quantitative genetics in plant and animal breeding has largely focused on additive models, which may also capture dominance and epistatic effects. Partitioning genetic variance into its additive and nonadditive components using pedigree-based models (P-genomic best linear unbiased predictor) (P-BLUP) is difficult with most commonly available family structures. However, the availability of dense panels of molecular markers makes possible the use of additive-and dominance-realized genomic relationships for the estimation of variance components and the prediction of genetic values (G-BLUP). We evaluated height data from a multifamily population of the tree species Pinus taeda with a systematic series of models accounting for additive, dominance, and first-order epistatic interactions (additive by additive, dominance by dominance, and additive by dominance), using either pedigree-or marker-based information. We show that, compared with the pedigree, use of realized genomic relationships in marker-based models yields a substantially more precise separation of additive and nonadditive components of genetic variance. We conclude that the marker-based relationship matrices in a model including additive and nonadditive effects performed better, improving breeding value prediction. Moreover, our results suggest that, for tree height in this population, the additive and nonadditive components of genetic variance are similar in magnitude. This novel result improves our current understanding of the genetic control and architecture of a quantitative trait and should be considered when developing breeding strategies.

Summary• Genomic selection is increasingly considered vital to accelerate genetic improvement. However, it is unknown how accurate genomic selection prediction models remain when used across environments and ages. This knowledge is critical for breeders to apply this strategy in genetic improvement.• Here, we evaluated the utility of genomic selection in a Pinus taeda population of c. 800 individuals clonally replicated and grown on four sites, and genotyped for 4825 singlenucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. Prediction models were estimated for diameter and height at multiple ages using genomic random regression best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP).• Accuracies of prediction models ranged from 0.65 to 0.75 for diameter, and 0.63 to 0.74 for height. The selection efficiency per unit time was estimated as 53-112% higher using genomic selection compared with phenotypic selection, assuming a reduction of 50% in the breeding cycle. Accuracies remained high across environments as long as they were used within the same breeding zone. However, models generated at early ages did not perform well to predict phenotypes at age 6 yr.• These results demonstrate the feasibility and remarkable gain that can be achieved by incorporating genomic selection in breeding programs, as long as models are used at the relevant selection age and within the breeding zone in which they were estimated.

As one of the world's most important food crops, potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) has spurred innovation in autotetraploid genetics, including the use of SNP arrays to determine allele dosage at thousands of markers. By combining genotype and pedigree information with phenotype data for economically important traits, the objectives of this study were to (1) partition the genetic variance into additive vs. non-additive components, and (2) determine the accuracy of genome-wide prediction. Between 2012 and 2017, a training population of 571 clones was evaluated for total yield, specific gravity, and chip fry color.Genomic covariance matrices for additive (G), digenic dominant (D), and additive x additive epistatic (G#G) effects were calculated using 3895 markers, and the numerator relationship matrix (A) was calculated from a 13-generation pedigree. Based on model fit and prediction accuracy, mixed model analysis with G was superior to A for yield and fry color but not specific gravity. The amount of additive genetic variance captured by markers was 20% of the total genetic variance for specific gravity, compared to 45% for yield and fry color. Within the training population, including non-additive effects improved accuracy and/or bias when predicting total genotypic value, for all three traits. When six F1 populations were used for validation, prediction accuracy ranged from 0.06 to 0.63 and was consistently lower (0.13 on average) without allele dosage information. We conclude that genome-wide prediction is feasible in potato and will improve selection for breeding value given the substantial amount of non-additive genetic variance in elite germplasm.4

Progress in the rate of improvement in autopolyploid species has been limited compared with diploids, mainly because software and methods to apply advanced prediction and selection methodologies in autopolyploids are lacking. The objectives of this research were to (i) develop an R package for autopolyploids to construct the relationship matrix derived from pedigree information that accounts for autopolyploidy and double reduction and (ii) use the package to estimate the level and effect of double reduction in an autotetraploid blueberry breeding population with extensive pedigree information. The package is unique, as it can create A-matrices for different levels of ploidy and double reduction, which can then be used by breeders to fit mixed models in the context of predicting breeding values (BVs). Using the data from this blueberry population, we found for all the traits that tetrasomic inheritance creates a better fit than disomic inheritance. In one of the five traits studied, the level of double reduction was different from zero, decreasing the estimated heritability, but it did not affect the prediction of BVs. We also discovered that different depths of pedigree would have significant implications on the estimation of double reduction using this approach. This freely available R package is available for autopolyploid breeders to estimate the level of double reduction present in their populations and the impact in the estimation of genetic parameters as well as to use advanced methods of prediction and selection.