Background Population-based research on heart failure (HF) is hindered by lack of consensus on diagnostic criteria. Framingham (FRM), National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), Modified Boston (MBS), Gothenburg (GTH), and International Classification of Disease, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code criteria do not differentiate acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) from chronic stable HF. We developed a new classification protocol for identifying ADHF in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study and compared it with these other schemes. Methods and Results A sample of 1180 hospitalizations with a patient address in four study communities and eligible discharge codes were selected. After assessing whether the chart contained evidence of possible HF signs, 705 were fully abstracted. Two independent reviewers classified each case as ADHF, chronic stable HF or no HF using ARIC classification guidelines. Fifty-nine percent of cases met ARIC criteria for ADHF and 13.9% and 27.1% were classified as chronic stable HF or no HF, respectively. Among events classified as HF by FRM criteria, 68.4% were validated as ADHF, 9.6% as chronic stable HF and 21.9% as no HF. However, 92.5% of hospitalizations with a primary ICD-9-CM 428 “heart failure” code were validated as ADHF. Sensitivities of comparison criteria to classify ADHF ranged from 38 to 95%, positive predictive values from 62 to 92%, and specificities from 19 to 96%. Conclusions Although comparison criteria for classifying HF were moderately sensitive in identifying ADHF, specificity varied when applied to a randomly selected set of suspected HF hospitalizations in the community.
Reduced kidney function is a risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, and both heart failure (HF) and kidney failure incidences are increasing. This study therefore sought to determine the effect of decreased kidney function on HF incidence in a population-based study of middle-aged adults.
Background Although HF disproportionately affects older adults, little data exist regarding the prevalence of American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association heart failure (HF) stages among older individuals in the community. Additionally, the role of contemporary measures of longitudinal strain (LS) and diastolic dysfunction in defining HF stages is unclear. Methods HF stages were classified in 6,118 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (age 67 – 91 years) at the fifth study visit as follows: stage A (asymptomatic with HF risk factors but no cardiac structural or functional abnormalities), B (asymptomatic with structural abnormalities, defined as left ventricular hypertrophy, dilation or dysfunction, or significant valvular disease), C1 (clinical HF without prior hospitalization), and C2 (clinical HF with prior hospitalization). Results Using the traditional definitions of HF stages, only 5% of examined participants were free of HF risk factors or structural heart disease (Stage 0), 52% were categorized as Stage A, 30% Stage B, 7% Stage C1, and 6% Stage C2. Worse HF stage was associated with a greater risk of incident HF hospitalization or death at a median follow-up of 608 days. LVEF was preserved in 77% and 65% in Stages C1 and C2 respectively. Incorporation of LS and diastolic dysfunction into the Stage B definition reclassified 14% of the sample from Stage A to B and improved the net reclassification index (p=0.028) and integrated discrimination index (p=0.016). Abnormal LV structure, systolic function (based on LVEF and LS), and diastolic function (based on e′, E/e′, and left atrial volume index) were each independently and additively associated with risk of incident HF hospitalization or death in Stage A and B participants. Conclusions The majority of older adults in the community are at risk for HF (Stages A or B), appreciably more compared to previous reports in younger community-based samples. LVEF is robustly preserved in at least two-thirds of older adults with prevalent HF (Stage C), highlighting the burden of HFpEF in the elderly. LV diastolic function and LS provide incremental prognostic value beyond conventional measures of LV structure and LVEF in identifying persons at risk for HF hospitalization or death.
Background A simple and effective Heart Failure (HF) risk score would facilitate the primary prevention and early diagnosis of HF in general practice. We examined the external validity of existing HF risk scores, optimized a 10-year HF risk function, and examined the incremental value of several biomarkers, including NT-proBNP. Methods and Results During 15.5 years (210,102 person-years of follow-up), 1487 HF events were recorded among 13,555 members of the bi-ethnic Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study cohort. The area under curve (AUC) from the Framingham-published, Framingham-recalibrated, Health ABC HF recalibrated, and ARIC risk scores were 0.610, 0.762, 0.783, and 0.797, respectively. Upon addition of NT-pro-BNP, the optimism corrected AUC of the ARIC HF risk score increased from 0.773 (95% CI: 0.753 – 0.787) to 0.805 (95% CI: 0.792 – 0.820). Inclusion of NT-proBNP improved the overall classification of re-calibrated Framingham, re-calibrated Health ABC, and ARIC risk scores by 18%, 12%, and 13%, respectively. In contrast, Cystatin C or hs-CRP did not add towards incremental risk prediction. Conclusions The ARIC HF risk score is more parsimonious yet performs slightly better than the extant risk scores in predicting 10-year risk of incident HF. The inclusion of NT-proBNP markedly improves HF risk prediction. A simplified risk score restricted to a patient’s age, race, gender, and NT-proBNP performs comparably to the full score (AUC = 0.745), and is suitable for automated reporting from laboratory panels and electronic medical records.
Background US blood pressure reduction policies are largely restricted to hypertensive populations and associated benefits are often estimated based on unrealistic interventions.Methods and ResultsWe used multivariable linear regression to estimate incidence rate differences contrasting the impact of 2 pragmatic hypothetical interventions to reduce coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure (HF) incidence: (1) a population‐wide intervention that reduced systolic blood pressure by 1 mm Hg and (2) targeted interventions that reduced the prevalence of unaware, untreated, or uncontrolled blood pressure above goal (per Eighth Joint National Committee treatment thresholds) by 10%. In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (n=15 744; 45 to 64 years at baseline, 1987–1989), incident coronary heart disease and stroke were adjudicated by physician panels. Incident HF was defined as the first hospitalization with discharge diagnosis code of “428.” A 10% proportional reduction in unaware, untreated, or uncontrolled blood pressure above goal resulted in ≈4.61, 3.55, and 11.01 fewer HF events per 100 000 person‐years in African Americans, and 3.77, 1.63, and 4.44 fewer HF events per 100 000 person‐years, respectively, in whites. In contrast, a 1 mm Hg population‐wide systolic blood pressure reduction was associated with 20.3 and 13.3 fewer HF events per 100 000 person‐years in African Americans and whites, respectively. Estimated event reductions for coronary heart disease and stroke were smaller than for HF, but followed a similar pattern for both population‐wide and targeted interventions.ConclusionsModest population‐wide shifts in systolic blood pressure could have a substantial impact on cardiovascular disease incidence and should be developed in parallel with interventions targeting populations with blood pressure above goal.
Editorial, see p 25BACKGROUND: Community trends of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in diverse populations may differ by race and sex. METHODS:The ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) sampled heart failure-related hospitalizations (≥55 years of age) in 4 US communities from 2005 to 2014 using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. ADHF hospitalizations were validated by standardized physician review and computer algorithm, yielding 40 173 events after accounting for sampling design (unweighted n=8746). RESULTS:Of the ADHF hospitalizations, 50% had reduced ejection fraction, and 39% had preserved EF (HFpEF). HF with reduced ejection fraction was more common in black men and white men, whereas HFpEF was most common in white women. Average age-adjusted rates of ADHF were highest in blacks (38.1 per 1000 black men, 30.5 per 1000 black women), with rates differing by HF type and sex. ADHF rates increased over the 10 years (average annual percentage change: black women +4.3%, black men +3.7%, white women +1.9%, white men +2.6%), mostly reflecting more acute HFpEF. Age-adjusted 28-day and 1-year case fatality proportions were ≈10% and 30%, respectively, similar across racesex groups and HF types. Only blacks showed decreased 1-year mortality over time (average annual percentage change: black women -5.4%, black men -4.6%), with rates differing by HF type (average annual percentage change: black women HFpEF -7.1%, black men HF with reduced ejection fraction -4.7%). CONCLUSIONS:Between 2005 and 2014, trends in ADHF hospitalizations increased in 4 US communities, primarily driven by acute HFpEF. Survival at 1 year was poor regardless of EF but improved over time for black women and black men.
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