IntroductionAsymptomatic persons infected with the parasites causing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) usually outnumber clinically apparent cases by a ratio of 4–10 to 1. We describe patterns of markers of Leishmania donovani infection and clinical VL in relation to age in Bihar, India.MethodsWe selected eleven villages highly endemic for Leishmania donovani. During a 1-year interval we conducted two house to house surveys during which we collected blood samples on filter paper from all consenting individuals aged 2 years and above. Samples were tested for anti-leishmania serology by Direct Agglutination Test (DAT) and rK39 ELISA. Data collected during the surveys included information on episodes of clinical VL among study participants.ResultsWe enrolled 13,163 persons; 6.2% were reactive to DAT and 5.9% to rK39. Agreement between the tests was weak (kappa = 0.30). Among those who were negative on both tests at baseline, 3.6% had converted to sero-positive on either of the two tests one year later. Proportions of sero-positives and sero-converters increased steadily with age. Clinical VL occurred mainly among children and young adults (median age 19 years).DiscussionAlthough infection with L. donovani is assumed to be permanent, serological markers revert to negative. Most VL cases occur at younger ages, yet we observed a steady increase with age in the frequency of sero-positivity and sero-conversion. Our findings can be explained by a boosting effect upon repeated exposure to the parasite or by intermittent release of parasites in infected subjects from safe target cells. A certain proportion of sero-negative subjects could have been infected but below the threshold of antibody abundance for our serologic testing.

IntroductionAsymptomatic persons infected with the parasites causing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) usually outnumber clinically apparent cases by a ratio of 4–10 to 1. We assessed the risk of progression from infection to disease as a function of DAT and rK39 serological titers.MethodsWe used available data on four cohorts from villages in India and Nepal that are highly endemic for Leishmania donovani. In each cohort two serosurveys had been conducted. Based on results of initial surveys, subjects were classified as seronegative, moderately seropositive or strongly seropositive using both DAT and rK39. Based on the combination of first and second survey results we identified seroconvertors for both markers. Seroconvertors were subdivided in high and low titer convertors. Subjects were followed up for at least one year following the second survey. Incident VL cases were recorded and verified.ResultsWe assessed a total of 32,529 enrolled subjects, for a total follow-up time of 72,169 person years. Altogether 235 incident VL cases were documented. The probability of progression to disease was strongly associated with initial serostatus and with seroconversion; this was particularly the case for those with high titers and most prominently among seroconvertors. For high titer DAT convertors the hazard ratio reached as high as 97.4 when compared to non-convertors. The strengths of the associations varied between cohorts and between markers but similar trends were observed between the four cohorts and the two markers.DiscussionThere is a strongly increased risk of progressing to disease among DAT and/or rK39 seropositives with high titers. The options for prophylactic treatment for this group merit further investigation, as it could be of clinical benefit if it prevents progression to disease. Prophylactic treatment might also have a public health benefit if it can be corroborated that these asymptomatically infected individuals are infectious for sand flies.

To identify factors associated with incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), we surveyed 13,416 households in Bihar State, India. VL was associated with socioeconomic status, type of housing, and belonging to the Musahar caste. Annual coverage of indoor residual insecticide spraying was 12%. Increasing such spraying can greatly contribute to VL control.

BackgroundVisceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Phlebotomus argentipes. To understand the VL seasonality, annual and monthly variations of VL incidence and its relationship to meteorological variables, the numbers of VL cases reported in Muzaffarpur district, Bihar, India from 1990 to 2008 were studied.MethodsAnnual VL incidence per 10,000 and the total number of annual VL cases reported at block Community Health Centres (CHC), Public Hospitals or Non-Governmental Organisations (NGO) and the number of VL cases per month from 2000 to 2008 as well as the monthly average of cases for 2000–08, 2000–04 and 2005–08 periods along with the monthly averages of temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were plotted. VL Standardised Incidence Ratios per block were computed for the periods of 1990–1993, 1994–1998, 1999–2004 and 2005–2008 and month wise from 2002 to 2008. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the association between meteorological variables and the number of VL cases per month from 2000 to 2008.ResultsA total of 68,358 VL cases were reported in Muzaffarpur district from 1990 to 2008, ranging from 1,2481 in 1992 to 1,161 in 2001. The blocks with the highest number of cases shifted from East (1990–98) to West (1999–2008). Monthly averages of cases ranged from 149 to 309, highest peak in March–April and another one in July. Monthly VL incidence was associated positively to rainfall and negatively to relative humidity and the numbers of VL cases in the previous month.InterpretationThe number of cases reported to the public health sector allowed the describing of the spatial distribution and temporal variations in the Muzaffarpur from 1990 to 2008. However, to assess the actual VL burden, as well as the efficacy of the control measures applied in the district, reporting from private practices and NGOs should be encouraged.