Most analyses of the US Great Moderation are based on structural VARs, and point toward good luck as the main explanation for the recent macroeconomic stability. Based on an estimated New-Keynesian model where the only source of change is the move from passive to active monetary policy, we show that (i) the theoretical VAR innovation variances for all series decrease across regimes; (ii) VAR-based counterfactuals assign a minor role to improved policy; and (iii) VAR impulse-response functions to a monetary shock exhibit little variation across regimes. Our analysis suggests that existing VAR evidence is also compatible with the "good policy" hypothesis. (JEL C32, C52, E13, E52, N12)

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This paper offers a new perspective on the transmission of monetary policy using household data for the U.S. and U.K.. Following a temporary cut in interest rates, households with mortgage debt increase their spending significantly, home-owners without debt do not adjust expenditure at all and renters increase spending but by less than mortgagors. Income, however, rises considerably for all households. We show that the balance sheets of these housing tenure groups differ markedly in their composition of liquid versus illiquid wealth. This heterogeneity in liquidity holdings, together with a sizable general equilibrium effect on income, is crucial for explaining our results. In contrast, differences in demographics, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, wealth effects and the response of mortgage and rental payments are unable to account for the heterogeneity in expenditure we document.

Almost half of American families did not adjust their consumption following receipt of the 2001 or 2008 tax rebates. Another 20 percent, with low income and more likely to rent, spent a small but significant amount. Households with large spending propensity held high levels of mortgage debt. The heterogeneity is concentrated in a few nondurable categories and a handful of "new vehicle" purchases. The cumulated predictions of the heterogeneous response model tend to be smaller and more accurate than their homogeneous response model counterparts, offering new insights on the evaluation of the two fiscal stimulus programs. (JEL D12, D91, E21, E32, E62) "When a full analysis of heterogeneity in responses was made [in microeconometric investigations], a variety of candidate averages emerged to describe the 'average' person, and the long-standing edifice of the representative consumer was shown to lack empirical support." -James J. Heckman (2001, p. 674) "We may expect to see that integrating individual coefficients [from models of heterogeneous responses] yields roughly mean effect as estimated by the associated least-squares coefficient. One should be cautious, however, about this interpretation in very heterogeneous situations." -Roger Koenker (2005, p. 302) In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, governments around the world have sought to support the economy through unprecedented fiscal interventions. Considerable uncertainty (and disagreement among economists) exists, however, around the impact of these policies. At the heart of this uncertainty lays the recognition that the effects of fiscal policies on the aggregate economy cannot be fully understood without explicit consideration of distributional dynamics. This important insight feeds into a growing macroeconomic literature which explicitly recognizes that consumers and entrepreneurs are inherently different in their access to