The relationship of relapses to long-term disability in multiple sclerosis is uncertain. Relapse reduction is a common therapeutic target but clinical trials have shown dissociation between relapse suppression and disability accumulation. We investigated relationships between relapses and disability progression for outcomes of requiring assistance to walk, being bedridden and dying from multiple sclerosis [Disability Status Scale 6, 8, 10] by analysing 28 000 patient-years of evolution in 806-bout onset patients from the London Ontario natural history cohort. Having previously shown no effect of relapse frequency among progressive multiple sclerosis subtypes, here we examined these measures in the pre-progressive or relapsing–remitting phase. Survival was compared among groups stratified by (i) early relapses—number of attacks during the first 2 years of multiple sclerosis; (ii) length of first inter-attack interval; (iii) interval between onset and Disability Status Scale 3 (moderate disability); (iv) number of attacks from the third year of disease up to onset of progression; and (v) during the entire relapsing–remitting phase. Early clinical features can predict hard disability outcomes. Frequent relapses in the first 2 years and shorter first inter-attack intervals predicted shorter times to reach hard disability endpoints. Attack frequencies, in the first 2 years, of 1 versus ≥3, gave differences of 7.6, 12.8 and 20.3 years in times from disease onset to Disability Status Scale 6, 8 and 10, respectively. Time to Disability Status Scale 3 highly and independently predicted time to Disability Status Scale 6, 8 and 10. In contrast, neither total number of relapsing–remitting phase attacks nor of relapses experienced during the relapsing–remitting phase after the second year up to onset of progression showed a deleterious effect on times from disease onset, from progression onset and from Disability Status Scale 3 to these hard endpoints. The failure of a regulatory mechanism tied to neurodegeneration is suggested. Relapse frequency beyond Year 2 does not appear to predict the key outcome of secondary progression or times to Disability Status Scale 6, 8 or 10, highlighting two distinct disease phases related to late outcome. These appear to be separated by a watershed within the relapsing–remitting phase, just a few years after clinical onset. Higher early relapse frequencies and shorter first inter-attack intervals herald more rapid deterioration via interaction with the neurodegeneration characterizing secondary progression. They increase the probability of its occurrence, its latency and influence—to a lesser degree—its slope. The prevention or delay of the progressive phase of the disease is implicated as a key therapeutic target in relapsing–remitting patients.

Clinical trials have indicated that autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) can persistently suppress inflammatory disease activity in a subset of patients with severe multiple sclerosis (MS), but the mechanism has remained unclear. To understand whether the beneficial effects on the course of disease are mediated by lympho-depletive effects alone or are sustained by a regeneration of the immune repertoire, we examined the long-term immune reconstitution in patients with MS who received HSCT. After numeric recovery of leukocytes, at 2-yr follow-up there was on average a doubling of the frequency of naive CD4+ T cells at the expense of memory T cells. Phenotypic and T cell receptor excision circle (TREC) analysis confirmed a recent thymic origin of the expanded naive T cell subset. Analysis of the T cell receptor repertoire showed the reconstitution of an overall broader clonal diversity and an extensive renewal of clonal specificities compared with pretherapy. These data are the first to demonstrate that long-term suppression of inflammatory activity in MS patients who received HSCT does not depend on persisting lymphopenia and is associated with profound qualitative immunological changes that demonstrate a de novo regeneration of the T cell compartment.

The primary progressive form of multiple sclerosis is characterized by accrual of neurological dysfunction from disease onset without remission and it is still a matter of debate whether this disease course results from different pathogenetic mechanisms compared with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Inflammation in the leptomeninges has been identified as a key feature of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and may contribute to the extensive cortical pathology that accompanies progressive disease. Our aim was to investigate the extent of perivascular and meningeal inflammation in primary progressive multiple sclerosis in order to understand their contribution to the pathogenetic mechanisms associated with cortical pathology. A comprehensive immunohistochemical analysis was performed on post-mortem brain tissue from 26 cases with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. A variable extent of meningeal immune cell infiltration was detected and more extensive demyelination and neurite loss in the cortical grey matter was found in cases exhibiting an increased level of meningeal inflammation. However, no tertiary lymphoid-like structures were found. Profound microglial activation and reduction in neuronal density was observed in both the lesions and normal appearing grey matter compared with control cortex. Furthermore, cases with primary progressive multiple sclerosis with extensive meningeal immune cell infiltration exhibited a more severe clinical course, including a shorter disease duration and younger age at death. Our data suggest that generalized diffuse meningeal inflammation and the associated inflammatory milieu in the subarachnoid compartment plays a role in the pathogenesis of cortical grey matter lesions and an increased rate of clinical progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis.

Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is commonly employed for hematologic and non-hematologic malignancies. In clinical trials, HSCT has been evaluated for severe autoimmunity as a method to "reset" the immune system and produce a new, non-autoimmune repertoire. While the feasibility of eliminating the vast majority of mature T cells is well established, accurate and quantitative determination of the relationship of regenerated T cells to the baseline repertoire has been difficult to assess. Here, in a phase II study of HSCT for poor-prognosis multiple sclerosis, we used high-throughput deep TCRβ chain sequencing to assess millions of individual TCRs per patient sample. We found that HSCT has distinctive effects on CD4 + and CD8 + T cell repertoires. In CD4 + T cells, dominant TCR clones present before treatment were undetectable following reconstitution, and patients largely developed a new repertoire. In contrast, dominant CD8 + clones were not effectively removed, and the reconstituted CD8 + T cell repertoire was created by clonal expansion of cells present before treatment. Importantly, patients who failed to respond to treatment had less diversity in their T cell repertoire early during the reconstitution process. These results demonstrate that TCR characterization during immunomodulatory treatment is both feasible and informative, and may enable monitoring of pathogenic or protective T cell clones following HSCT and cellular therapies. IntroductionWhen employed for immunomodulation, the goal of autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is to create a non-autoreactive immune compartment by altering the immune repertoire and/or function of autoreactive cells (1-3). Using T cell receptor excision circle analysis in HSCT-treated MS patients, we showed previously that even in adults, thymic output contributed to the post-treatment TCR repertoire (2, 4) and that this, plus expansion of residual cells not eliminated during conditioning, regenerated the T cell compartment (5).However, the clonal specificities of a regenerated repertoire following high-dose immunosuppressive therapy (HDIT) and autologous HSCT have not been well explored, as previous studies used CDR3 spectratyping for TCR clonal analysis, which made it impractical to sequence more than several dozen TCRs. Only a single patient receiving HSCT for autoimmune disease (ankylosing spondylitis) has had a fuller analysis of their TCR repertoire reported (6). Here, as part of a new phase II trial for poor-prognosis MS (see Methods), we have taken advantage of high-throughput deep TCRβ chain sequencing (7) to directly assess millions of TCRs per individual before and at two time points after autologous HSCT in a cohort of 24 patients.

Development of SP is the dominant determinant of long-term prognosis, independent of disease duration and early relapse frequency. Age independently affects disability development primarily by changing probability and latency of SP onset, with little effect on the progressive course.