Triggering hydrological simulations with climate change gridded datasets is one of the prevailing approaches in climate change impact assessment at a river basin scale, with bias correction and spatio-temporal interpolation being functions routinely used on the datasets preprocessing. The research object is to investigate the dilemma arisen when climate datasets are used, and shed light on which process—i.e., bias correction or spatio-temporal interpolation—should go first in order to achieve the maximum hydrological simulation accuracy. In doing so, the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) temperature and precipitation products of 9 × 9 km spatial resolution, which are considered as the reference data, are initially compared with the same hindcast variables of a regional climate model of 12.5 × 12.5 km spatial resolution over a specific case study basin and for a 10-year period (1991–2000). Thereafter, the climate model’s variables are (a) bias corrected followed by their spatial interpolation at the reference resolution of 9 × 9 km with the use of empirical quantile mapping and spatio-temporal kriging methods respectively, and (b) spatially downscaled and then bias corrected by using the same methods as before. The derived outputs from each of the produced dataset are not only statistically analyzed at a climate variables level, but they are also used as forcings for the hydrological simulation of the river runoff. The simulated runoffs are compared through statistical performance measures, and it is established that the discharges attributed to the bias corrected climate data followed by the spatio-temporal interpolation present a high degree of correlation with the reference ones. The research is considered a useful roadmap for the preparation of gridded climate change data before being used in hydrological modeling.
Climate changes in the Mediterranean region, especially those related to changes in rainfall distribution and occurrence of extreme events, affect local economies. Agriculture is a sector strongly affected by climate conditions and concerns the majority of the Greek territory. The Gallikos river basin is an area of great interest regarding climate change impacts since it is an agricultural area depended on surface water resources and an area in which extreme events relatively often take place (e.g., floods). Long time series precipitation (27 years) and temperature data derived from measurement stations along with reanalysis data (ERA INTERIM) were used for the estimation of water availability and climate type over time in the area. The Standardized Precipitation Index and De Martonne aridity index was employed. The water flow measurements were correlated in order to investigate the interrelation between the different river branches and the extent of the meteorological changes effect in the basin. Descriptive statistics and cumulative curves were applied to check homogeneity of data. The results revealed that the climate type varies from semi arid to very wet, and water availability ranges from moderately dry to extremely wet years. Reanalysis data overestimate precipitation. The meteorological changes affect, at the same time, the entire basin since the flow rate peaks occur simultaneously in the hydrographic network at different areas.
Due to the fact of water resource deterioration from human activities and increased demand over the last few decades, optimization of management practices and policies is required, for which more reliable data are necessary. Cost and time are always of importance; therefore, methods that can provide low-cost data in a short period of time have been developed. In this study, the ability of an artificial neural network (ANN) and a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to predict the electrical conductivity of groundwater samples in the GallikosRiver basin, northern Greece, was examined. A total of 233 samples were collected over the years 2004–2005 from 89 sampling points. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation matrix, and factor analysis were applied to select the inputs of the water quality parameters. Input data to the ANN and MLR were Ca, Mg, Na, and Cl. The best results regarding the ANN were provided by a model that included one hidden layer of three neurons. The mean absolute percentage error, modeling efficiency, and root mean square error were used to evaluate the performances of the methods and to compare the prediction capabilities of the ANN and MLR. We concluded that the ANN and MLR models were valid and had similar accuracy (using the same inputs) with a large number of samples, but in the case of a smaller data set, the MLR showed a better performance.
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