This study examines whether dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts reflects uncertainty about firms' future economic performance. Prior research examining this issue has been inconclusive. These studies have concluded that forecast dispersion is likely to reflect factors other than uncertainty about future cash flows, such as uncertainty about the price irrelevant component of firms' financial reports (Daley et al. [1988]; Imhoff and Lobo [1992]). Abarbanell et al. (1995) argue that, if forecast dispersion after (i.e., conditional on) an earnings announcement reflects uncertainty about firms' future cash flows and this uncertainty causes investors to desire additional information, then dispersion will be positively associated with both (a) the level of demand for more information and (b) the magnitude of price reactions around the subsequent earnings release. In this study, we construct a measure of informational demand using the incidence of analyst forecast updating after dispersion is measured. We find a positive association between dispersion in earnings forecasts after an earnings release and this measure of informational demand. We also find a positive association between forecast dispersion and the magnitude of price reactions around subsequent earnings releases. These associations are most apparent when potentially stale (or outdated) forecasts are removed from measures of forecast dispersion. These associations also persist after controlling for other measures of uncertainty (e.g., beta and the variance of daily stock returns), consistent with dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts serving as a useful indicator of uncertainty about the price relevant component of firms' future earnings.

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the impact of managerial equity ownership on return on assets as a measure of profitability and two financial statement‐based agency cost measures, i.e. asset utilization and an expense ratio, which proxy for management's efficiency in use of assets and perquisite consumption, respectively.Design/methodology/approachMultivariate tests are constructed to examine the nonlinear relation between managerial equity ownership and both profitability and agency costs, using interaction terms to capture the relation at various levels of managerial ownership.FindingsThe paper documents that managerial equity ownership is nonlinearly and positively associated with return on assets and asset utilization, and nonlinearly and negatively associated with the expense ratio, after controlling for firm size, leverage, corporate diversification, institutional ownership, research intensity, firm age, and executive stock options.Research limitations/implicationsThe results imply that the ability of managerial equity ownership to reduce agency costs decreases as levels of ownership increase. Further, the results indicate that, in some industries, high levels of ownership lead to increased expense ratios, suggesting increased perquisite consumption. Finally, these results suggest that, above a certain level in some industries, managerial equity ownership only marginally encourages efficient asset utilization but does not significantly deter excessive spending.Originality/valueThe paper provides a link between research that demonstrates a linear relation between managerial equity ownership and financial‐statement based profitability and agency cost measures and research that finds a nonlinear relation between managerial equity ownership and Tobin's Q, a proxy for firm performance.

This study examines the effects of public predisclosure information on market reactions to earnings announcements. We develop an empirical measure of public predisclosure information impounded in price prior to earnings announcements by cumulating abnormal returns on public news release dates during the quarter. Consistent with prior literature, we document a negative association between this measure and market reactions to subsequent earnings announcements. Moreover, we find that after controlling for this measure, firm size and analyst following are significantly "positively" associated with market reactions to earnings announcements. Contrary to prior empirical evidence, our results suggest that, after controlling for actual predisclosure information impounded in price, market reactions to earnings announcements are greater in magnitude for larger, more widely-followed firms than for smaller, less widely-followed firms. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2004.

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