No abstract

A cross-comparison of climate change adaptation strategies across regions was performed, considering six large river basins as case study áreas. Three of the basins, namely the Elbe, Guadiana, and Rhine, are located in Europe, the Nile Equatorial Lakes región and the Orange basin are in África, and the Amudarya basin is in Central Asia. The evaluation was based mainly on the opinions oí policy makers and water management experts in the river basins. The adaptation strategies were evaluated considering the following issues: expected climate change, expected climate change impacts, drivers for development oí adaptation strategy, barriers for adaptation, state oí the implementation oí a range oí water management measures, and status oí adaptation strategy implementation. The analysis oí responses and cross-comparison were performed with rating the responses where possible. According to the expert opinions, there is an understanding in all six regions that climate change is happening. Different climate change impacts are expected in the basins, whereas decreasing annual water availability, and increasing frequency and intensity oí droughts (and to a lesser extent floods) are expected in all oí them. According to the responses, the two most important drivers for development of adaptation strategy are: climate-related disasters, and national and international policies. The following most important barriers for adaptation to climate change were identified by responders: spatial and temporal uncertainties in climate projections, lack of adequate financial resources, and lack of horizontal cooperation. The evaluated water resources management measures are on a relatively high level in the Elbe and Rhine basins, followed by the Orange and Guadiana. It is lower in the Amudarya basin, and the lowest in the NEL región, where many measures are only at the planning stage. Regarding the level of adaptation strategy implementation, it can be concluded that the adaptation to climate change has started in all basins, but progresses rather slowly.

Climate change is already affecting many natural systems and human environments worldwide, like the semiarid Guadiana Basin in Spain. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change adaptation in the Guadiana irrigation farming region. The study applies a solution-oriented diagnostic framework structured along a series of sequential analytical steps. An initial stage integrates economic and hydrologic modeling to evaluate the effects of climate change on the agriculture and water sectors. Next, adaptation measures are identified and prioritized through a stakeholder-based multi-criteria analysis.Finally, a social network analysis identifies key actors and their relationships in climate change adaptation. The study shows that under a severe climate change scenario, water availability could be substantially decreased and drought occurrence will augment. In consequence, farmers will adapt their crops to a lesser amount of water and income gains will diminish, particularly for smallholder farms. Among the various adaptation measures considered, those related to private farming (new crop varieties and modern irrigation technologies) are ranked highest, whereas publicfunded hard measures (reservoirs) are lowest and public soft measures (insurance) are ranked middle. In addition, stakeholders highlighted that the most relevant criteria for selecting adaptation plans are environmental protection, financial feasibility and employment creation. Nonetheless, the social network analysis evidenced the need to strengthen the links among the different stakeholder groups to facilitate the implementation of adaptation processes. In sum, the diagnostic framework applied in this research can be considered a valuable tool for guiding and supporting decision making in climate change adaptation and communicating scientific results.

In the last decade, increasing evidence of climate change fostered the development of multiple initiatives for adaptation. However, there are few examples in which adaptation has been successfully implemented, evidencing the need for improving understanding about the socio-institutional context of adaptation processes and the underlying causes of barriers to adaptation. In this research, we developed a stakeholder-based assessment of barriers to the adoption of climate adaptation options for irrigation in the Guadiana basin, one of Spain's most climate-vulnerable basins. Based on social network mapping, we elicited potential barriers to adaptation in the water sector. Using stakeholder questionnaires, we assessed the impact of the identified barriers on the implementation of selected adaptation measures. Results highlight the low acceptance of planned adaptation by stakeholders, and the lack of awareness and of a common understanding among the different actors as preeminent barriers to adaptation, potentially caused by insufficient interactions between water users, the scientific community and environmental groups. The role of the government as a catalyst of those interactions can be crucial for overcoming those barriers. Acknowledged water management instruments, such as water tariffs and quotas, may face the greatest barriers, while widely accepted adaptation measures, such as irrigation modernisation, can contribute to overcoming the obstacles for the implementation of more controversial measures. Overall, the results of this research contribute to climate change adaptation providing a better understanding of the social dimension of adaptation processes, potential barriers to overcome and the feasibility of specific measures.

Rangeland degradation caused by increasing misuses remains a global concern. Rangelands have a remarkable spatiotemporal heterogeneity, making them suitable to be monitored with remote sensing. Among the remotely sensed vegetation indices, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is most used in ecology and agriculture. In this paper, we research the relationship of NDVI with temperature, precipitation, and Aridity Index (AI) in four different arid rangeland areas in Spain’s southeast. We focus on the interphase variability, studying time series from 2002 to 2019 with regression analysis and lagged correlation at two different spatial resolutions (500 × 500 and 250 × 250 m2) to understand NDVI response to meteorological variables. Intraseasonal phases were defined based on NDVI patterns. Strong correlation with temperature was reported in phases with high precipitations. The correlation between NDVI and meteorological series showed a time lag effect depending on the area, phase, and variable observed. Differences were found between the two resolutions, showing a stronger relationship with the finer one. Land uses and management affected the NDVI dynamics heavily strongly linked to temperature and water availability. The relationship between AI and NDVI clustered the areas in two groups. The intraphases variability is a crucial aspect of NDVI dynamics, particularly in arid regions.