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Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

Eukaryotic phytoplankton form the basis of aquatic food webs and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Many of these evolutionarily diverse microalgae are also capable of feeding on other microbes, and hence simultaneously act both as primary producers and consumers. The net ecosystem impact of such mixotrophs depends on their nutritional strategy which is likely to alter with environmental change. Many temperate lakes are currently warming at unprecedented rates and are simultaneously increasing in water color (browning) due to increased run‐off of humic substances. We hypothesized that the resulting reduction in light intensity and increased bacterial abundances would favor mixotrophic phytoplankton over obligate autotrophs, while higher temperatures might boost their rates of bacterivory. We tested these hypotheses in a mesocosm experiment simulating a gradient of increasing temperature and water color in temperate shallow lakes as expected to occur over the coming century. Mixotrophs showed a faster increase in abundance under the climate change scenario during spring, when they dominated the phytoplankton community. Furthermore, both bacterial abundances and rates of phytoplankton bacterivory increased under future climate conditions. Bacterivory contributed significantly to phytoplankton resource acquisition under future climate conditions, while remaining negligible throughout most of the season in treatments resembling today's conditions. Hence, to our knowledge, we here provide the first evidence for an increasing importance of bacterivory by phytoplankton in future temperate shallow lakes. Such a change in phytoplankton nutritional strategies will likely impact biogeochemical cycles and highlights the need to conceptually integrate mixotrophy into current ecosystem models.

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