Viruses, such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and chikungunya, depend on mosquitoes for transmission. Their epidemics typically present periodic patterns, linked to the underlying mosquito population dynamics, which are known to be driven by natural climate fluctuations. Understanding how climate dictates the timing and potential of viral transmission is essential for preparedness of public health systems and design of control strategies. While various alternative approaches have been proposed to estimate local transmission potential of such viruses, few open‐source, ready to use and freely available software tools exist. We developed the Mosquito‐borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE) software package for the R programming environment. MVSE estimates the index P, a novel suitability index based on a climate‐driven mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number of mosquito‐borne viruses. By accounting for local humidity and temperature, as well as viral, vector and human priors, the index P can be estimated for specific host and viral species in different regions of the globe. We describe the background theory, empirical support and biological interpretation of the index P. Using real‐world examples spanning multiple epidemiological contexts, we further demonstrate MVSE's basic functionality, research and educational potentials.

Background: Viruses such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and chikungunya depend on mosquitoes for transmission. Their epidemics typically present periodic patterns, linked to the underlying mosquito population dynamics, which are known to be driven by natural climate fluctuations. Understanding how climate dictates the timing and potential of viral transmission is essential for preparedness of public health systems and design of control strategies. Results: We developed the Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE) software package for the R programming environment. The package estimates a suitability index based on a climate-driven mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) of a well established mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne viruses. By accounting for local humidity and temperature, as well as viral, vector and human priors, suitability can be estimated for specific host and viral species, as well as different regions of the globe. Conclusions: Here, we describe the background theory and biological interpretation of the new suitability index, as well as the implementation, basic functionality, research and educational potentials of the MVSE R-package. The package is freely available under the GPL 3.0 license.

19In South East Asia, mosquito-borne viruses have long been recognised as a cause of high disease 20 burden and significant economic costs. While certain countries in the region often serve as robust 21 references for epidemiological data on particular mosquito-borne viruses, our current understanding of