Dengue virus, primarily transmitted by the Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito, has rapidly expanded in geographic extent over the past several decades. In some areas, however, dengue fever has not emerged despite established Ae. aegypti populations. The reasons for this are unclear and have sometimes been attributed to socio-economic differences. In 2013 we compared Ae. aegypti adult density and population age structure between two cities in Sonora, Mexico: Hermosillo, which has regular seasonal dengue virus transmission, and Nogales, which has minimal transmission. Larval and pupal abundance was greater in Nogales, and adult density was only higher in Hermosillo during September. Population age structure, however, was consistently older in Hermosillo. This difference in longevity may have been one factor that limited dengue virus transmission in Nogales in 2013, as a smaller proportion of Ae. aegypti females survived past the extrinsic incubation period.

Aedes aegypti (L.; Diptera: Culicidae) has been established in the southwestern United States for several decades, but relationships between humans and mosquitoes in this arid region are not well-characterized. In August 2012, the outdoor premises of 355 houses within 20 neighborhoods in Tucson, Arizona were surveyed for containers that could provide larval habitat for Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. At the same time, a knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) questionnaire was administered to a resident of each house surveyed for immature mosquitoes. The KAP questionnaire assessed respondents' knowledge and concerns about vector-borne illnesses as well as practices they used to avoid mosquitoes. Of the houses surveyed, 91% had at least one container present, and 64% had at least one container with standing water. On average, each house had 2.2 containers with water at the time of the survey. The overall House Index (proportion of premises surveyed with at least one container with Ae. aegypti immatures present) was 13%. Based on questionnaire responses, there was a significant positive association between the number of residents in the home and the odds of finding Ae. aegypti positive containers on the premises, while household income showed a significant negative association. The reported frequency of checking for standing water was also significantly associated with the odds of finding immatures, although the nature of this association was ambiguous. Flower pots were the principal type of container with Ae. aegypti larvae. These findings show that larval habitat is widely available even in an arid environment and city with good housing and sanitation infrastructure.

Little is currently known about the spatial-temporal dynamics of dengue epidemics in arid areas. This study assesses dengue outbreaks that occurred in two arid cities of Mexico, Hermosillo and Navojoa, located in northern state of Sonora. Laboratory confirmed dengue cases from Hermosillo (N=2,730) and Navojoa (N=493) were geocoded by residence and assigned neighborhood-level characteristics from the 2010 Mexican census. Kernel density and Space-time cluster analysis was performed to detect high density areas and space-time clusters of dengue. Ordinary Least Square regression was used to assess the changing socioeconomic characteristics of cases over the course of the outbreaks. Both cities exhibited contiguous patterns of space-time clustering. Initial areas of dissemination were characterized in both cities by high population density, high percentage of occupied houses, and lack of healthcare. Future research and control efforts in these regions should consider these space-time and socioeconomic patterns.

BackgroundDengue is an emerging threat in the U.S.-Mexico border region. Transmission has regularly occurred in Sonora, MX since 1982 but it was not until 2014 that cities directly on the Arizona-Sonora border had local transmission. One of the closest urban areas to have regular seasonal transmission is Hermosillo, SN, MX. Developing a better understanding of the knowledge and perceptions of dengue in close geographic proximity to the border can identify areas to target for prevention and control measures.MethodsWe conducted focus groups in six neighborhoods in Hermosillo, SN, MX; three with high-dengue transmission and three with lower transmission. Awareness of dengue and experience with dengue was common.ResultsIn all focus groups, discussants reported knowing someone personally who had past dengue infection. We further identified several key ways that the perceptions of dengue transmission could influence the effectiveness of dengue control campaigns. First, there was confusion about how dengue is transmitted. While people associated dengue with mosquitoes, multiple modes of transmission were perceived including direct person-to-person transmission. In one focus group, discussants indicated a stigma surrounding dengue infection. The necessity to maintain cleanliness in their households was identified as a primary strategy to fight dengue; however, participants also noted the limited impact and their actions may have on transmission if there is lack of community support or governmental infrastructure to control neighboring and public spaces.ConclusionAs dengue risk increases in the border region, more efforts should be made to clearly convey the single mode of transmission of dengue to avoid the development of stigma. More coordinated efforts should be made to not only control but also prevent dengue.

BackgroundGovernment-administered adulticiding is frequently conducted in response to dengue transmission worldwide. Anecdotal evidence suggests that spraying may create a “false sense of security” for residents. Our objective was to determine if there was an association between residents’ reporting outdoor spatial insecticide spraying as way to prevent dengue transmission and both their reported frequency of dengue prevention practices and household entomological indices in Hermosillo, Mexico.Methodology/Principal findingsA non-probabilistic survey of 400 households was conducted in August 2014. An oral questionnaire was administered to an adult resident and the outer premises of the home were inspected for water-holding containers and presence of Ae. aegypti larvae and pupae. Self-reported frequency of prevention practices were assessed among residents who reported outdoor spatial spraying as a strategy to prevent dengue (n = 93) and those who did not (n = 307). Mixed effects negative binomial regression was used to assess associations between resident’s reporting spraying as a means to prevent dengue and container indices. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to determine associations with presence/absence of larvae and pupae. Those reporting spatial spraying disposed of trash less frequently and spent less time indoors to avoid mosquitoes. They also used insecticides and larvicides more often and covered their water containers more frequently. Their backyards had more containers positive for Ae. aegypti (RR = 1.92) and there was a higher probability of finding one or more Ae. aegypti pupae (OR = 2.20). Survey respondents that reported spatial spraying prevented dengue were more likely to be older and were exposed to fewer media sources regarding prevention.Conclusions/SignificanceThe results suggest that the perception that outdoor spatial spraying prevents dengue is associated with lower adoption of prevention practices and higher entomological risk. This provides some support to the hypothesis that spraying may lead to a “false sense of security”. Further investigations to clarify this relationship should be conducted. Government campaigns should emphasize the difficulty in controlling Ae. aegypti mosquitoes and the need for both government and community action to minimize risk of dengue transmission.

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Lockdown and social distancing measures have been implemented for many countries to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming of health services. However, success on this strategy depends not only on the timing of its implementation, but also on the relaxation measures adopted within each community. At the request of Sonoran Health Ministry, we developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impacts of the lockdown implemented in Hermosillo, Mexico. We compared this intervention with some hypothetical ones, varying the starting date and also the population proportion that is released, breaking the confinement. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo study was performed by considering three scenarios to define our baseline dynamics. Results showed that a hypothetical delay of two weeks, on the lockdown measures, would result in an early ACME around May 9 for hospitalization prevalence and an increase on cumulative deaths, 42 times higher by May 31, when compared to baseline. On the other hand, in respect of relaxation dynamics, the ACME levels depend on the proportion of people who gets back to daily activities or the individual behavior regarding prevention measures. It is important to stress that, according to information provided by health authorities, the ACME occurring time was closed to the one given by our model. Hence, we considered that our model resulted useful for the decision-making assessment, and that an extension of it can be used for the study of a potential second wave.

Lockdown and social distancing measures have been implemented for many countries to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming of health services. However, success on this strategy depends not only on the timing of its implementation, but also on the relaxation measures adopted within each community. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impacts of the lockdown implemented in Hermosillo, Mexico. We compared this intervention with some hypothetical ones, varying the starting date and also the population proportion that is released, breaking the confinement. A Monte Carlo study was performed by considering three scenarios to define our baseline dynamics. Results showed that a hypothetical delay of two weeks, on the lockdown measures, would result in an early acme around May 9 for hospitalization prevalence and an increase on cumulative deaths, 42 times higher by May 31, when compared to baseline. On the other hand, results concerning relaxation dynamics showed that the acme levels depend on the proportion of people who gets back to daily activities as well as the individual behavior with respect to prevention measures. Analysis regarding different relaxing mitigation measures were provided to the Sonoran Health Ministry, as requested. It is important to stress that, according to information provided by health authorities, the acme occurring time was closed to the one given by our model. Hence, we considered that our model resulted useful for the decision-making assessment, and that an extension of it can be used for the study of a potential second wave.