A disastrous cloudburst and associated floods in Kerala during the 2019 monsoon season raise the hypothesis that rainfall over the west coast of India, much of which is stratiform, may be trending towards being more convective. As a first exploration, we sought statistically significant differences in monthly ERA-5 reanalysis data for the monsoon season between two epochs, 1980–1999 and 2000–2019. Results suggest a more convective (deeper, ice-rich) cloud population in recent decades, with patterns illustrated in ERA-5 spatial maps. Deepening of convection, above and beyond its trend in amount, is also indicated by the steeper regression slope of outgoing longwave radiation trends against precipitation than that exhibited in interannual variability. Our reanalysis results are strengthened by related trends manifested in more direct observations from satellite and gauge-based rainfall and a CAPE index from balloon soundings data.
Ocean State Forecasts (OSF) contribute to safe and sustainable fishing, but forecast usage among artisanal fishers is often limited. Our research in Thiruvananthapuram district in the southern Indian state of Kerala tested forecast quality and value, and how fishers engage with forecasts. In two fishing villages, we verified forecast accuracy, skill and reliability by comparing forecasts with observations during the 2018 monsoon season (June – September; n=122). We assessed forecast value by analyzing fishers’ perceptions of weather and risks and the way they used forecasts–based on 8 focus group discussions, 20 interviews, conversations and logs of 10 fishing boats. We find that while forecasts are mostly accurate, inadequate forecasting of unusual events (e.g., wind >45 kmph) and frequent fishing restrictions (n= 32) undermine their value. While fishers seek more localized and detailed forecasts, they do not always use them. Weather forecasts are just one of the tools artisanal fishers deploy; not simply to decide as to whether to go to sea or not, but also to manage potential risks, allowing them to prepare for fishing under hazardous conditions. Instead, their decisions are primarily based on the availability of fish and their economic needs. Based on our findings, we suggest that political, economic and social marginality of south Indian fishers influences the fishers’ perceptions and responses to weather-related risks. Therefore, improving forecast usage requires not only better forecast skill and wide dissemination of tailor-made weather information, but also better appreciation of risk cultures and the livelihood imperatives of artisanal fishing communities.
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