Summary We wanted to determine if changes in algae in the Everglades were due to increased phosphorus (P) loading. Epiphytic algae, water chemistry, and surface sediment chemistry were characterized from 32 sloughs along a P gradient in the Everglades and changes in the algal assemblages along the P gradient were compared with those along an experimental P gradient of in situ mesocosms. The sloughs are the wettest open water habitats characterized by floating and submerged aquatic plants in the Everglades. Algal species composition was much more sensitive to P concentration than algal biomass. The diatom species variance among sloughs, captured by 1st ordination axis, was more highly correlated with total P (TP) in surface sediments (r = ‐ 0.79), than soluble reactive P (SRP) (r = ‐ 0.08) and TP (r = ‐ 0.48) in the water column. Algal biomass (µg chl a cm‐2) was not significantly correlated with P (SRP: r = 0.22, TP: r = 0.19, sediment TP: r = 0.07) along the P gradient in the Everglades. Cluster analysis classified diatom species assemblages in 32 sloughs into three groups (TWIN I, II, III), which corresponded to three zones along the P gradient. Dominant diatom species shifted from Mastogloia smithii (40.3%), Cymbella scotica (22.3%), and Fragilaria synegrotesca (21.8%) in TWIN I to Nitzschia amphibia (22.4%) and C. microcephala (12.4%) in TWIN III. TP in surface sediments and TP in epiphyton assemblages increased 4‐ and 5‐fold from TWIN I to TWIN III, respectively. Patterns in epiphytic assemblages along the experimental P gradient in the mesocosms were very similar to those along the Everglades P gradient. Shannon diversity indices and species richness significantly increased along both P gradients. TN : TP ratio in epiphyton assemblages significantly decreased as sediment TP increased along both P gradient. Ordination analysis showed that diatom assemblages in the impacted zone (TWIN III) were ordinated closely to the assemblages from the highest P treatments in the mesocosms. The assemblages from the less impacted zone (TWIN I) were ordinated closely to the assemblages from controls in the mesocosms. Concurrence between results of our survey and experiments suggest that changes in epiphytic assemblages along the P gradient in the Everglades are caused by increases in P concentrations.

The Florida Everglades, a wetland of international importance, has been undergoing a significant shift in its native flora and fauna due to excessive total phosphorus (TP) loadings (an average of 147 t per annum from 1995to 2004) and an elevated mean TP concentration (69 microg L(-1) of TP in 2004) from agricultural runoff and Lake Okeechobee outflow despite the use of 16000 ha of stormwater treatment areas. Here, we present a Bayesian changepoint analysis of long-term experimental research and show that exceeding a surface water geometric mean TP threshold concentration of 15 microg L(-1) causes an ecological imbalance in algal, macrophyte, and macroinvertebrate assemblages as well as slough community structure. A phosphorus threshold for all trophic levels may be more realistic and protective when presented as a threshold zone (12-15 microg L(-1)) because estimates of uncertainty must be utilized to accurately define TP thresholds, which change with seasons and water depths. Most interior areas of the Everglades are currently at or below this threshold zone, but the exterior areas near inflow structures (except for the Everglades National Park) are presently receiving double or triple the proposed threshold. Our Bayesian approach, used hereto address ecological imbalance along nutrient gradients, is applicable to determining thresholds and stable states in other aquatic ecosystems.