Climate change affects plants in natural and agricultural ecosystems throughout the world but little work has been done on the effects of climate change on plant disease epidemics. To illustrate such effects, a weather-based disease forecasting model was combined with a climate change model predicting UK temperature and rainfall under high-and low-carbon emissions for the 2020s and 2050s. Multi-site data collected over a 15-year period were used to develop and validate a weather-based model forecasting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics on oilseed rape across the UK. This was combined with climate change scenarios to predict that epidemics will not only increase in severity but also spread northwards by the 2020s. These results provide a stimulus to develop models to predict the effects of climate change on other plant diseases, especially in delicately balanced agricultural or natural ecosystems. Such predictions can be used to guide policy and practice in adapting to effects of climate change on food security and wildlife.

Experiments over five growing seasons at Rothamsted (1998/99-2002/03), four seasons at Boxworth (1998/99, 1999/2000, 2001/02, 2002/03) in England (Leptosphaeria maculans) and three seasons (1998/99-2000/01) at Poznan in Poland (Leptosphaeria biglobosa) suggest that differences in the development of phoma stem canker epidemics between England and Poland relate to differences in weather patterns between the two countries. The duration of ascospore release was longer in England, where winter weather is mild and wet, than in Poland, where winters are cold and often with snow cover, but there was little difference between two sites in England (Rothamsted and Boxworth). Wetness provided by rainfall was essential for release of ascospores of both L. maculans in England and L. biglobosa in Poland. Temperature did not affect release of ascospores over the range 5-20° C. Diurnal periodicity in release of ascospores of L. maculans in England and L. biglobosa in Poland was similar. The timing (date) of first release of ascospores of L. maculans or L. biglobosa in autumn was related to rainfall in August and September; with increasing rainfall the date was earlier. The incubation periods from first release of ascospores to first appearance of phoma leaf spots for both L. maculans in England and L. biglobosa in Poland, and from first leaf spots to first stem base canker in England, were described using a thermal time (degree-day) approximation

The main source of Leptosphaeria maculans (Desm.) Ces. & de Not. infection on winter oilseed rape in Cambridgeshire was stubble debris from the previous season. Heavy leaf spot infection of seedlings near unploughed oilseed rape stubble resulted in complete crop loss. The fungus actively colonised stubble debris after harvest and perithecia were formed predominantly on tissues colonised during this period. Ascospores were detected throughout the year, mainly from October to April. The degree of leaf spot infection in the autumn was correlated with stem canker infection at the end of flowering and with severe stem lesions at harvest. The incidence of leaf spot infection was greater in the spring than in the autumn, particularly during the period of extension growth and early flowering. Stem canker infections were first seen in March and continued to develop up to and after harvest.

In the UK, ascospores of Leptosphaeria maculans first infect leaves of oilseed rape in the autumn to cause phoma leaf spots, from which the fungus can grow to cause stem cankers in the spring. Yield losses due to early senescence and lodging result if the stem cankers become severe before harvest. The risk of severe stem canker epidemics needs to be forecast in the autumn when the pathogen is still in the leaves, since early infections cause the greatest yield losses and fungicides have limited curative activity. Currently the most effective way to forecast severe stem canker is to monitor the onset of phoma leaf spotting in winter oilseed rape crops, although this does not allow much time in which to apply a fungicide. Early warnings of risks of severe stem canker epidemics could be provided at the beginning of the season through regional forecasts based on disease survey and weather data, with options for input of crop-specific information and for updating forecasts during the winter. The accuracy of such forecasts could be improved by including factors relating to the maturation of ascospores in pseudothecia, the release of ascospores and the occurrence of infection conditions, as they affect the onset, intensity and duration of the phoma leaf spotting phase. Accurate forecasting of severe stem canker epidemics can improve disease control and optimise fungicide use

Global food security is threatened by crop diseases that account for average yield losses of 16%, with the greatest losses experienced by subsistence farmers in the developing world. Climate change is exacerbating the threats to food security in such areas, emphasising the need to increase food production in northern European countries such as the UK. However, the crops must be grown in such a way as to minimise greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) associated with their production. As an example, it is estimated that production of UK winter oilseed rape is associated with GHG of 3300 kg CO 2 eq. ha -1 of crop and 834 kg CO 2 eq. t -1 of seed yield, with 79%of the GHG associated with the use of nitrogen fertiliser. Furthermore, it is estimated that control of diseases by use of fungicides in this UK oilseed rape is associated with a decrease in GHG of 100 kg CO 2 eq. t -1 of seed. Winter oilseed rape cultivar disease resistance is associated with a decrease in GHG of 56 kg CO 2 eq. t -1 , although this figure is an underestimate. These results demonstrate how disease control in arable crops can make a contribution to both climate change mitigation and sustainable arable crop production to ensure global food security.